NBA Picks

Most notably, KAT has dominated the lowly Nets. Across three meetings, the Kentucky product is averaging 26.3 points per contest. He’s also averaging 19.8 PPG on the road this season. Towns has also hit the Over in three straight road games, dropping 25,35, and 21 points. He’ll keep it rolling this evening in the Big Apple.

In comparison to last year's 5.1 mark, Landry Shamet's points per game have surged this year to 9.8.. This year, the other team's starting SGs have averaged 6.2 three attempts per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) vs. the Brooklyn Nets, making this a good matchup.. The New York Knicks rank as the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).

The Golden State Warriors’ three-point defense has been vulnerable as of late, and sharpshooter Duncan Robinson is in line to bury 3+ triples - something he’s done in 40 of 67 games this season. Across the last 10 games, Golden State has surrendered the 12th-most three-pointers (13.3) and eighth-highest three-point percentage (36.5).

Robinson ranks fourth in threes made at home (3.4), converting his treys at a 44.4% clip. He’s recorded 3+ triples in 24 of 33 games at Little Caesars Arena. Robinson has hit 3+ triples in all eight games played without Cade Cunningham this season.

In terms of three-point shots, the Pistons's feeble 11.0 successful threes per game ranks 3rd-worst in the NBA this year.. The 7th-most sluggish pace-of-play team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Pistons.. The Detroit Pistons will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from competing against the 3rd-least up-tempo pace road offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Warriors).

Atlanta is 19-15 on the road, and while they’ve lost three straight to Houston, the hosts aren’t in great shape at the moment.

This Atlanta squad is playing with tons of confidence, and I expect them to keep it rolling tonight.

Atlanta is red-hot, having won 11 straight and going 9-1 ATS over its last 10 games. With Houston losing three of its last four, back the road team in the Space City.

The Minnesota Timberwolves may be without Anthony Edwards, but the -2.5 line still feels too short. I make this closer to Wolves -5, which is why I’m backing them. Portland’s offense runs heavily through Deni Avdija as a point forward, and this is a matchup where Minnesota has a clear answer. Jaden McDaniels is an elite defender who can disrupt Avdija’s rhythm and efficiency, and if that happens, it significantly limits what the Blazers can do offensively. Minnesota also has another key defensive advantage. Portland has struggled against teams that play deep drop coverage, and that’s exactly what Rudy Gobert specializes in—at an elite level. His presence should make it difficult for the Blazers to generate consistent offense in the paint. Even without Edwards, the Timberwolves still have enough talent and the right defensive matchups to control this game.

Deni Avdija has now played six games since returning from a back issue. While his scoring has been erratic and he’s ice-cold from 3-point range, he’s averaging 6.3 RPG and 7.0 APG in that span. So I like this combo Over, with Avdija cashing this number in three of his last four outings, and the Blazers are thinner on the wing without Shaedon Sharpe.

Even while sharing playmaking duties with Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson, Avdija is Portland’s No.1 creator, and his rebounding will be critical against a Minnesota team that crushed the Indiana Pacers on the boards in midweek.

In regard to shooting, the Memphis Grizzlies's unimpressive 44.4% field goal rate measures as the 4th-weakest in the league over the last 5 games.. The Boston Celtics have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the league this year, which ought to reduce possessions for the Grizzlies.. This year, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 2.3 free throws per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Boston Celtics, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

The Boston Celtics have played at the least up-tempo tempo in the league this year, which ought to reduce possessions for the Grizzlies.

You can absolutely play the Over 5.5 assists for Immanuel Quickley given the edge, but I prefer targeting the 7+ assists at +130, as the projection clears that number by a wide margin. I have 7+ assists priced closer to -210. The matchup against Denver sets up extremely well for Quickley. Jamal Murray is expected to be his primary defender, and he tends to struggle against quick, shifty guards—exactly Quickley’s profile. On top of that, Murray has to carry a significant offensive load, so his defensive impact is likely to be limited. There’s also a schematic edge working in Quickley’s favor. With Nikola Jokić playing higher in coverage to take away pull-up threes, it opens the door for Quickley to attack downhill. That allows him to use his snake dribble, get into the lane, draw help from defenders like Aaron Gordon, and create easy dump-off opportunities.

The Toronto Raptors rank as the 4th-most efficient shooting team in the league over the last 15 games when playing away from home.. The Raptors are expected to see a spike in possessions today from being pitted against the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Nuggets).