NBA Picks

The Pistons are 22-7 at home this season with an average margin of victory of 10.3 and are second in net rating behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder. That's too much to overcome for the Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell and potentially James Harden.

James Harden and Donovan Mitchell could both be sidelined for Cleveland on Friday, leaving the Eastern Conference's top seed ready to strike at home. I'm all over the Pistons covering in a blowout.

The Brooklyn Nets are at the bottom of the Atlantic Division and among the worst rebounding teams, ranked 26th in rebound rate. Pritchard has grabbed four or more boards in two of the past three matchups with Brooklyn and is projected for as many as 4.9 rebounds tonight.

Big number, but I love this spot for Boston. It’s their first home game since Feb. 11, they’re off tomorrow, and they’re coming off an ugly loss. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS in the second leg of back-to-backs and ranks dead last in offensive rating this month, while Boston is first in defensive rating. The Celtics have covered in six straight as double-digit favorites. The Nets are on an 0-7 ATS slide as a double-digit dog and their losses on the road have come by a league-worst average of 19.3 PPG.

Before being limited to five FGAs vs. Cleveland, KAT averaged more than 15 shots in the first three outings back from the break. The New York Knicks' big man has actually been hot all of February, upping his average points to 19.6 and shooting 55.4% from the field.

He won’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo in pursuit against the Milwaukee Bucks after struggling in the first two matchups with Milwaukee (4 for 20 with Giannis). His projections sit between 19.2 and 20.2 points tonight, giving good value to Over 18.5.

In terms of scoring, the Bucks's fantastic 119.8 points per game while playing at home settles in as the 6th-highest in the league over the last 5 games.

The Grizzlies have been without leading scorer Ja Morant (19.5 ppg) since mid-January, and standout rookie Cedric Coward (13.3 ppg) is also sidelined. That means plenty of shots for former Top-10 pick Taylor Hendricks, who was acquired in the Jaren Jackson trade. W

With Santi Aldama and Zach Edey injured, Hendricks has blossomed in an increased role in the frontcourt, dropping 10+ points in four of his last six games. The Mavericks' defense has collapsed with the departure of Anthony Davis and injuries to Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington. Dallas ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive rating while playing at the sixth-fastest pace over the last month.

This year, opposing starting SGs have averaged 4.3 shots made from the field per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, branding this as a difficult matchup.. The Mavericks rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Returning Gilgeous-Alexander is huge for OKC but keeping him healthy should be the priority. Not only does he need to meet the bar for MVP consideration, but the Thunder own a mere 1.5-game buffer atop the conference. Projections are tempered for SGA with a full workload promising 30+ points but most models range from 18.4 to 23.7 points with his minutes capped. I believe OKC plays it safe.

The Nuggets check in as the highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 6th-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games as the away team.. Over the last 10 games, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 4.5 foul shots per game (10th-most in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, making it fairly effortless to get to the free-throw line.

With Steph Curry ruled out, Draymond Green and Kristaps Porzingis listed as game-time decisions, and Jimmy Butler done for the season, expect the Lakers to get the best of the Warriors for the second time this month.