NBA Picks

Alexander-Walker has dialed up his production in this closing stretch as the Hawks reach as high as the No. 5 seed in the East. He has cleared this prop in his last three games while shooting 16-of-29 (55.2%) from deep. That is the kind of shooting that defenses simply cannot stop, certainly not in the regular season.

Cleveland is locked in the No. 4 seed and has nothing to play for in these final games, which means not only protecting your stars but also not tipping your hand against this Atlanta defense. Guard Donovan Mitchell is one matchup the Hawks will need to solve in the playoffs but they may not get much intel from the Cavs, at least not tonight. Mitchell suffered an ankle injury on the weekend and sat out Monday’s win over Memphis. While he’s listed as questionable tonight, Mitchell downplayed the injury after it happened and has been adamant about playing out the final games of the schedule. Player projections vary based on his floor time, with some models sitting as low as 23.2 and others peaking above 29 points. Given Atlanta’s defensive prowess (No. 9 in defensive rating) and Cavs’ potentially capping Mitchell’s minutes, I’m going to lean toward the lower forecasts.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Timberwolves grade out 1stworst in in the NBA while on the road with only 8.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

Duncan Robinson picked up the scoring slack for Detroit, knocking down 28 of 59 3-point attempts (47.5%) over his last eight outings. He’s knocked down three or more shots from distance in six of the last eight contests and player projections sit as high as 3.3 makes from downtown. Even at full strength, Milwaukee struggles to protect the perimeter. On the season, the Bucks rank 27th in opponent 3-point success (37.4%) and allow the second most triples per game (14.8). Those numbers have only swelled over the past month (16.0 3PM, 39.4% last 21 games).

The Pistons check in as the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).

Gordon does it all for Denver, including setting up his teammates. Since getting back to his normal workload in mid-March, Gordon is averaging 3.0 assists on 6.3 potential assists over his last seven games. He’s dished out five and three dimes in overtime wins against Portland and San Antonio and faces a much easier defense from the Grizzlies. Memphis gives up the fifth most assists to foes and sits 20th in assist rate allowed. Player projections for Gordan all sit north of three assists with a ceiling of 3.5 dimes tonight. 

The Nuggets are expected to see a rise in opportunities in this game from being pitted against the 4th-speediest tempo away team in the league over the last 25 games (the Memphis Grizzlies).

The Spurs rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).

This year, the opposition's starting PGs have shot 29.8% on 3-pointers (3rd-weakest in the league) against the Trail Blazers, making this a hard matchup.. The Spurs have played at the 8th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing at home.. The San Antonio Spurs are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 7th-slowest tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Portland Trail Blazers).

Los Angeles is running thin in the frontcourt. Chet Holmgren will draw checks from the slower Lopez or smaller forwards John Collins and Nicolas Batum. His points production is forecasted between 15.5 and 16.2 versus a scoring prop of 14.5 O/U. I believe there’s a much higher ceiling for OKC’s 7-footer, with these numbers tempered by his reduced action in the Thunder’s blowouts. Holmgren dropped 22 points in his last matchup with L.A. in December and the Clippers still had Ivica Zubac at the time. 

The LA Clippers check in as the 6th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 25 games.. This year when they are at home, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 4.9 foul shots per game (7th-most in the league) vs. the Thunder, easily managing to get to the foul line.

The Mavericks have been getting destroyed in the second leg of back-to-backs, losing their last five in this spot by 24, 18, 33, 20, and 19 points. This is a clear sign that they’re taking their foot off the gas, aka tanking. That sets up well for the Suns, who should be motivated off a bad loss. Even on a B2B, this is a prime opportunity for Phoenix to solidify their position in the standings.

This year, opposing starting PFs have averaged 29.1% on three-pointers (3rd-weakest in the NBA) vs. the Suns, making this a tough matchup.. The Mavericks have been the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).