Free NBA Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game May 4, 2026
PHI
@
NY
Mon, May 4 • 8:00 PM ET
PHI +7.5 (-108)
Let’s ride the momentum of the Sixers’ 3–1 comeback against the Celtics, capped off by a Game 7 win in Boston. This looks like a team getting healthy and peaking at exactly the right time. The +7.5 spread feels too high—I make it closer to +6, so there’s clear value on Philadelphia. Beyond Joel Embiid’s history of success against Karl-Anthony Towns, the key matchup is VJ Edgecombe on Jalen Brunson. Edgecombe gives the Sixers something they’ve lacked in this spot: a quick, athletic point-of-attack defender who can stay in front of Brunson. With his energy and young legs, he should be able to handle a heavy workload defensively if needed. That also allows Tyrese Maxey to conserve more energy for scoring, which is a big boost for the offense. At the end of the day, it’s just too many points—give me the Sixers.
Joel Embiid u9.5 Total Rebounds (-125)
Embiid matches up with Karl-Anthony Towns, who is more than comfortable shooting from deep. The Knicks are using Towns atop the key, running the ball through him to space the floor. And while Embiid was a beast on the boards versus Boston, recording double figures in three of four games, he won’t be in primary rebounding position in this Round 2 series. And with a sore hip (along with bum knees and a recent appendectomy) and quick turnaround to travel to MSG, Embiid’s mobility isn’t great. Player projections sits between 7.2 and 11.5 but the majority of models are short of nine rebounds, with my number at 8.6 boards from Philly’s big.
MIN
@
SA
Mon, May 4 • 9:30 PM ET
Rudy Gobert u10.5 Total Rebounds (+102)
Victor Wembanyama can camp out in the paint on defense when Gobert is in the game, stifling any Minnesota drives. Without their two best shooters, the Timberwolves need some space inside. Expect more five-out lineups from Minnesota with Julius Randle the primary defender on Wembanyama.
If Randle hits a couple 3-pointers, Minnesota will suddenly have a viable offensive plan against the Defensive Player of The Year. And while Randle is a streaky shooter, he did hit multiple 3-pointers in three of the six games against the Nuggets.
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