NBA Picks

The Thunder just covered the 15-point spread in back-to-back games against the Nets and Wizards. They’ve also won by an average of 24.6 points against the 76ers across the last three meetings. 

When it comes to shooting, the Thunder's impressive 119.3 points per game while playing on the road settles in as the 4th-best in the league this year.. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 6th-most up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 5 games as the visting team.. The 76ers have played at the 4th-quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games in their home stadium, which should boost plays for the Thunder.

With Cade Cunningham sidelined, the Detroit Pistons need an all-hands effort filling that hole on offense. Ausar saw his touches increasing alongside his shooting activity. He finished just 4 for 10 for eight points over 25 minutes in a one-sided win against Golden State. Thompson has been on a minutes restriction since returning from a sprained ankle earlier this month but with Cunningham out and L.A.’s high-octane offense on deck, Detroit needs his defensive and offensive output. Player forecasts all sit north of 9.5 points from Thompson with a ceiling of 13.3.

The Pistons have been the least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc.. The Detroit Pistons have played at the 10th-most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 20 games.. The Detroit Pistons are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays today from competing against the 3rd-most sluggish pace-of-play away team in the league over the last 5 games (the Los Angeles Lakers).

Paolo Banchero is very clearly operating as a point forward in this Magic offense right now, but he still isn’t being priced like it in the assists market, so we’re going back to the over once again. Banchero is averaging just over 12 potential assists per game over his last five, which really stands out when you’re looking at a line of 5.5 with plus money on the over. He’s facing the Pacers, and this sets up as a drive-and-kick clinic, with Banchero consistently finding shooters for wide-open jump shots. Indiana has struggled significantly with allowing paint points and shots at the rim, which should lead to over-helping and late rotations in a panic on Banchero’s drives—opening up plenty of passing lanes and assist opportunities. There’s also strong potential for Banchero to rack up assists in transition, especially when he pushes the ball himself off defensive rebounds in this matchup.

Desmond Bane has cashed the Over in four of his last seven appearances, and he has played better at home, averaging 22.5 PPG compared to 19.5 on the road. Most notably, he’s averaged 24.5 PPG against the Indiana Pacers this season, who are losers of 16 straight contests.

The fastest pace-of-play team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.. The Heat will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 10th-speediest tempo away team in the league over the last 20 games (the San Antonio Spurs).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Miami Heat rank 6th-best in in the league with 13.0 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.. Over the last 24 games when they are playing at home, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.9 foul shots per game (4th-highest in the league) vs. the Spurs, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the Miami Heat's lackluster 31.2% rate of successful threes rates 2nd-worst in the NBA over the last 5 games.

As a team, the Memphis Grizzlies have been poor at drawing fouls when playing away from home: 7th-worst in the league this year, drawing a lowly 21.9 foul shot attempts per game.

As a team, the Memphis Grizzlies have been poor at drawing fouls when playing away from home: 7th-worst in the league this year, drawing a lowly 21.9 foul shot attempts per game.. Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted 3.3 foul shots per game (3rd-fewest in the league) against the Atlanta Hawks, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

I had absolutely zero hesitation hitting this number—this is my favorite prop on the board for Monday. Reed Sheppard has stepped into the starting lineup in place of Tari Eason and is now running the point, initiating a ton of the offense. In his last game against the Miami Heat, he dished out 14 assists on 21 potential assists, and now he draws a Chicago Bulls defense that lacks both point-of-attack resistance and rim protection—two things that are critical for slowing down a playmaker like him. In two-man actions with Sengun, Bulls guards will be forced to chase over the top because of Sheppard’s lethal jump shot. That opens up everything: his ability to snake the dribble, force Jalen Smith to commit, and create easy looks—whether it’s pocket passes to Sengun or drop-offs to Amen Thompson in the dunker spot. At +128 for over 5.5 assists, this line feels way off—I have it priced closer to -225.

The Rockets are the second-most methodical team in the Association, and they can dictate pace against the Bulls, who play fast and loose on offense. Houston struggles to cover big spreads, though, so I like that narrative to manifest in another Under, despite the lower total.

Immanuel Quickley is priced at +115 for over 6.5 assists, and we’re definitely hitting that number—I have it closer to -155. Quickley is on the second night of a back-to-back, but he didn’t log heavy minutes in the first game, as the Raptors were blown out by the Suns. His projected minutes here are also slightly below his season average. He’s facing a Utah Jazz team that has ruled out all of its primary rim protectors due to surgeries, clearly leaning into the tank. This is a young defensive unit that’s slow to rotate and offers virtually no rim protection on the back line. Quickley won’t need to do anything spectacular—this really comes down to his teammates. Jakob Poeltl and the wings should have an easy time converting his potential assists at the rim, with plenty of uncontested layups and dunks available due to blown rotations.

In regard to offense, the Toronto Raptors's outstanding 52.0% field goal rate rates best in the league over the last 5 games.. This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have registered 24.0 points per game (highest in the NBA) against the Utah Jazz, creating a strong matchup for offensive effectiveness.. The Toronto Raptors will likely see a spike in possessions in this game from being pitted against the speediest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games (the Jazz).. The matchup vs. Utah is a strong one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 5.6 free throws per game this year when the Utah Jazz are at home (most in the NBA).

In regard to scoring, the Dallas Mavericks's excellent 119.4 points per game comes in as the 6th-best in the league over the last 5 games.. The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.

The Mavericks have played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to boost plays for the Golden State Warriors.. Offensive rebounds continue possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Warriors grade out 2nd-best in in the league with 13.5 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

This year, opposing starting PGs have shot 29.8% on three-pointers (3rd-worst in the league) against the Portland Trail Blazers, designating this as a hard matchup.. The 4th-slowest pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Brooklyn Nets.. Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Nets rank 5thworst in in the league as the visting team with just 10.0 offensive boards per game this year.

The Trail Blazers check in as the least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year.. The Trail Blazers are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions in this game from being pitted against the 4th-slowest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Nets).

The Bucks check in as the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league this year.. The Milwaukee Bucks will likely see an increase in possessions today from squaring off against the 10th-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Clippers).

The Bucks have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Clippers.. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Clippers grade out 1stworst in in the NBA playing at home with just 8.2 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.