NBA Picks

The Raptors are within touching distance of ending a three-year playoff drought, and Barnes should be able to stuff the stat sheet today, even if a blowout scoreline cuts into his minutes. His assist numbers have come down to earth a little lately after a late-March surge, but he’s still hit this Over in 10 of his last 13 games.

Immanuel Quickley’s return from a foot injury is helping to relieve some of the playmaking burden on Barnes’ shoulders, but there are still plenty of possessions with Scottie at the controls and he's averaging 6.0 APG at home this season. Plus, the shorthanded Nets allowed 120+ points to the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks last week, and they should be easy pickings for Barnes here.

Looking to fend off any possibility of slipping into a play-in spot, the Raptors will be highly motivated to wipe the floor with the league’s worst offense. The Nets also remain littered with injuries, so I’ll take Toronto to not let up on Sunday.

A casual NBA fan might not be able to name anyone who's actually suiting up for the Knicks in this game, and that's a bad sign against a Charlotte team that is playing well, frequently wins by blowout margins, and still has something to play for heading into its regular-season finale. I'm taking the Hornets to cover even with this massive spread.

The New York Knicks have been the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the home team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).

The Hawks have listed most of their top players for questionable for the regular season finale, and there's still uncertainty over how much Miami will use its top players even with the chance to improve its play-in seeding. With these teams already combining to go below tonight's total in their first three games this year, I'm taking the Under.

In terms of offense, the Cleveland Cavaliers's excellent 121.1 points per game as the home team settles in as the 2nd-strongest in the NBA over the last 25 games.. The matchup against Washington is a positive one; when the Washington Wizards are the visiting squad, they have allowed the 5th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SGs this year (16.9).. The Washington Wizards have played at the 2nd-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, which ought to raise possessions for the Cavaliers.. Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted 2.8 free throws per game (8th-highest in the league) vs. the Washington Wizards, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.

The Washington Wizards have played at the 2nd-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, which ought to raise possessions for the Cavaliers.

Orlando's defensive rating over that same stretch is 115.3. That sounds like points until you realize the teams they've been running up and down the floor were actually capable of exploiting it. 

Garza and Scheierman can score, but the Celtics' reserves are not that team. They don't have enough overall firepower to punish a leaky defense, but they will scrap like crazy defensively. 

Take the Under and don't look back.

 

The Orlando Magic have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Celtics.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce further chances for scoring and assists, and the Celtics grade out 4th-best in in the league playing at home with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.

Paul George has scored 19+ in seven of his last nine, doing so in three straight at home. George has been stellar against Milwaukee this season, averaging 24.3 points and five triples in three matchups. George shot 52.1% from the floor and 53.6% from downtown in those games, scoring 19+ in each of them.

The Milwaukee Bucks are missing a number of key defenders, and George should be able to take full advantage. With Joel Embiid sidelined, George should be the second option on offense behind Tyrese Maxey, and I don’t expect a depleted Milwaukee team to slow him down in front of the home crowd in a critical game.

The Bucks have played at the 3rd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Philadelphia 76ers.

Kawhi Leonard has already fallen short of this prop in six of his last seven games. Fewer minutes or intentionally less aggression tonight should assure that becomes seven of eight to close the season.

The Clippers have played at the 3rd-most lethargic tempo in the league this year.. The LA Clippers are expected to suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 7th-most sluggish pace offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (the Warriors).. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Clippers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA playing at home with a mere 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

With Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic both sidelined, Luke Kennard has joined the first unit, logging 31 minutes per game across four straight starts. In that span, he’s averaged 27.6 PRA and recorded his first career triple-double.

Over his last four, Kennard has posted PRA totals of 23, 24, 21 and 42 respectively, clearing the Over only once but coming close in each contest. LeBron James is questionable tonight, and with James at less than 100%, Kennard could operate as the team’s leading facilitator and a go-to scoring option.

Kennard gets the perfect storm of an excellent matchup, pace-up spot and potential high usage in front of the home crowd. My money’s on a big game.

There are ways of envisioning the Timberwolves putting up some numbers tonight. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are not opposed to losing. They have a slight hope of tying the Memphis Grizzlies and the Dallas Mavericks for the sixth-worst record in the league. In fact, Dallas is favored by 6.5 points tonight against the Chicago Bulls, the one inter-conference game on the slate.

The 8th-most up-tempo tempo home team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Minnesota Timberwolves.. The Timberwolves will likely see an increase in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 2nd-most up-tempo tempo offense in the league over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).. The Timberwolves check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Portland is just 3-4 against the spread at home as a double-digit favorite this season. Those three covers came against Washington, Brooklyn, and Milwaukee, and the Kings have been quietly covering all month.

The Trail Blazers are below .500 ATS when asked to lay big numbers on their own floor, and that's why we’re taking the points and Sacramento.

The 6th-fastest pace home team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Portland Trail Blazers.. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Portland Trail Blazers grade out best in in the league with 13.9 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

The Thunder ruled 10 players out for Friday’s game, and the same 10 will be sitting tonight. That includes full-time starters Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Hartenstein, as well as most of the rotation players on the bench.

The group sitting this weekend combined for 310 of OKC’s 400 starts through the first 80 games. The only starter to play Friday was Luguentz Dort, who played 20 minutes. The other seven players to see the floor combined for 23 starts this season.  

In regard to offense, the Thunder's terrific 128.6 points per game rates 2nd-most in the NBA over the last 5 games.

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets's superb 122.0 points per game places best in the league this year.. The 4th-fastest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Denver Nuggets.

When it comes to scoring, the Nuggets's superb 122.0 points per game places best in the league this year.. The matchup vs. the San Antonio Spurs is a positive one for threes; the other team's starting SGs have shot for the 8th-highest three percentage in the NBA this year (37.5%).. The 4th-fastest tempo road team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Denver Nuggets.. The matchup vs. the Spurs is a strong one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting SGs have attempted an enormous 3.2 free throws per game this year (8th-most in the league).