NBA Picks

The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).. The matchup against Philadelphia may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Philadelphia 76ers are playing at home (7th-least in the NBA).

As it relates to offense, the Philadelphia 76ers's lackluster 103.4 points per game playing at home rates 2nd-weakest in the league over the last 5 games.. The matchup vs. Memphis is a difficult one; when the Grizzlies are away from home, they have allowed the 8th-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting PGs this year (17.0).

Jalen Duren has been a monster for the Detroit Pistons. Even amid a four-game losing skid, the big man is still doing his part. He's cashed the Over in points in four of his last seven contests, including a 24-point outing Sunday night in Miami. The center is averaging 18.5 ppg overall and 22.7 points across three meetings with the Brooklyn Nets this season. In March, his average sits at 17.6 ppg. Duren is set to cook Brooklyn and should help Detroit end its losing streak tonight.

Detroit finds itself in a perfect bounce-back spot against a Nets team that struggles badly in this situation. Brooklyn is 2-9 ATS in the second game of back-to-backs this season, and the results haven’t been close—losing by 37 to Boston and 19 to OKC in their last two such spots. The Pistons have dropped four straight, including a loss to these Nets on Saturday, but as the No. 1 seed in the East with Boston closing in, this is not a spot to play down to the competition. Don't forget the Pistons obliterated the Nets by 53 back on February 1st.

Miami is one of the hotter teams in the Association since the break, going 7-2 SU and ATS. Washington, meanwhile, has lost eight straight (2-6 ATS) since beating up on the pitiful Pacers in back-to-back games following the All-Star Game. The Heat are 4-1 SU and ATS vs. the Wizards dating back to last season.

Atlanta and Dallas are trending in completely opposite directions heading into this matchup. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games and rank 7th in net rating over the last 10 games, while the Mavericks are 27th and have lost five of their last six games by double digits. Over the last five games the gap is even wider—Atlanta ranks 1st in net rating and defensive rating, while Dallas is dead last offensively. The situational edge favors Atlanta as well, rested at home while Dallas continues a brutal road trip.

Daniel Gafford has totaled 13.0 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.4 more than he's totaled over the course of the year.. The 3rd-speediest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Dallas Mavericks.. The Hawks have played at the quickest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise opportunities for the Dallas Mavericks.. In regard to getting to the free-throw line, the Dallas Mavericks's terrific 27.1 free throws per game places 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 25 games.

In three games since returning from a lengthy absence, Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged just 23.3 points, but he will have no problem cashing the Over on his points prop tonight.

The Greek Freak is a perennial 30-point per game scorer, so there’s value to be had with his points line. Antetokounmpo’s playing time and points scored have increased in each of his last two games, culminating in 27 points in 27 minutes.

He’s scored 30+ in four straight matchups with the Suns, and he’ll need to be great tonight to get his team back in the win column.

The Bucks check in as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA on their home court this year.. The matchup against Phoenix is a strong one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SGs have attempted an enormous 3.8 free throws per game this year when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting team (2nd-most in the league).

Alperen Sengun is trading at +102 for the Over 18.5 points, and that’s a number I’m happy to attack as I price it closer to -205. This is my favorite prop on the board for Tuesday. Sengun draws a strong matchup against the Raptors, especially with Jakob Poeltl listed as questionable due to illness. Even if Poeltl does suit up, dealing with Sengun’s physicality and post game while not fully healthy will be a difficult task. If Poeltl sits, Toronto has shown a willingness to go smaller and even use wings at the five, but that strategy is unlikely to hold up against Sengun. In a league where many centers are pulled out to the perimeter, Sengun remains one of the few bigs who can consistently seal defenders, use his strength, and punish teams with traditional post play. Given how the Raptors prefer to defend, he should have plenty of room to operate in the areas of the floor where he’s most effective.

The Spurs are 17-12-1 ATS at home, and the Celtics are an NBA-best 22-11. The C’s are also 22-11 straight up on the road, and they’ve won five of their last six outside Boston.

Each team ranks in the top-5 in both offensive rating and defensive rating, and Boston gets the slight edge in net rating at 8.2 compared to San Antonio’s 7.2. This game should come down to the wire, and in a battle of such evenly matched squads, I’m leaning on the team with a pair of proven closers in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. 

De’Aaron Fox is one of the most clutch scorers in the NBA right now, but the problem this season with the San Antonio Spurs is that they’ve been blowing teams out. Because of that, Fox often falls under his points prop simply due to a lack of late-game opportunities. That dynamic should change against the Boston Celtics. The Spurs are only 3.5-point favorites in what projects to be the game of the night, which creates a strong chance Fox sees a high-usage fourth quarter. Derrick White is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, but even he will have his hands full chasing Fox’s speed through double-drag screens and horns actions—especially when he also has to account for the gravity of Victor Wembanyama. I price this prop at -180 for Fox to go over 16.5 points.

When it comes to shots from downtown, the Portland Trail Blazers's unimpressive 33.7% rate of converted threes ranks 2nd-fewest in the league this year.. The Hornets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games while traveling, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Trail Blazers.

With both groups also playing at a top-five pace, the combination of extra possessions and awful stop units sets up as a high-scoring affair in Sacramento. 

Malik Monk has scored 18.6 points per game over the last 5 games while at home, 3.9 more than he's scored overall this year at home.. The 6th-speediest pace home offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Kings.. The Pacers have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should raise opportunities for the Sacramento Kings.. The Sacramento Kings have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

This year, the opposition's starting SGs have totaled 10.6 field goal attempts per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Bulls, making this a difficult matchup.. The 4th-least up-tempo pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Golden State Warriors.. As a team, the Golden State Warriors have been lousy at drawing fouls recently: worst in the NBA over the last 25 games with a lowly 17.0 foul shots per game.. The matchup vs. the Chicago Bulls is a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a mere 1.7 free throws per game this year (least in the NBA).

The Golden State Warriors are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from sharing the court with the speediest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Bulls).. The Golden State Warriors have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

When the Minnesota Timberwolves dispatched the Los Angeles Lakers with ease in last year’s first round, it was largely a credit to how easily their defense mitigated the Lakers’ post game. Removing rim runners from Luka Doncic’s peripheral vision reduces Doncic’s overall effectiveness.

Luka Doncic is trading at -115 for the Over 31.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking given that I price it closer to -170. This sets up as a rivalry game between the Lakers and the Timberwolves, and with the Lakers off yesterday and another off day tomorrow, there’s little reason to expect any limitation on Doncic’s workload. In what should be a competitive matchup, 38+ minutes is very much in play. Minnesota does have an excellent defender in Jaden McDaniels to throw at Doncic, but this bet is more about volume than efficiency. Doncic is always willing to take on a heavy scoring load, and that tendency only increases when things get personal. He has a well-documented rivalry with Rudy Gobert, and whenever he gets Gobert switched onto him in isolation, the shot is almost always going up. In those moments, Doncic has a habit of turning into a flamethrower from deep.