Atlanta @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Nacho Alvarez Jr. will hold the platoon advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Nacho Alvarez Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, rising from 45.8% on the season to 55.9% over the last 14 days.

Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 5th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Ronald Acuna Jr. will have the handedness advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Matt Olson ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Olson is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Matt Olson has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Matt Olson has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.9-mph average to last year's 94-mph figure.

HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Nick Allen will hold the platoon advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Nick Allen has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 90.4-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 84.5-mph mark.

Sean Murphy will have the handedness advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's game. Sean Murphy pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. Sean Murphy's 13.9% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) grades out in the 88th percentile this year. Sean Murphy's maximum exit velocity (an advanced stat to evaluate power) has been 114.4 mph this year, checking in at the 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Michael Harris II has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today. In the last 14 days, Michael Harris II's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.8-mph over the course of the season to 96.9-mph lately. Michael Harris II has been unlucky this year, compiling a .294 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .033 gap.

Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Ozzie Albies will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Ranger Suarez in this game. Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Batters such as Ozzie Albies with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ranger Suarez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Bryson Stott will hold the platoon advantage against Bryce Elder in today's game. Bryson Stott has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Bryson Stott's launch angle recently (21.8° over the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 15.6° seasonal mark.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Marcell Ozuna will have an advantage today. Marcell Ozuna pulls many of his flyballs (33.5% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Max Kepler ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge in today's game. Max Kepler will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Max Kepler has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. J.T. Realmuto will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. J.T. Realmuto has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 8.7% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm as the 18th-best hitter in the game when it comes to his batting average skill. Alec Bohm is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Alec Bohm will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Alec Bohm's 58.8% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.7%.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Bryce Elder today. Bryce Harper has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Bryce Harper will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Jurickson Profar will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Ranger Suarez in this game. Jurickson Profar pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Nick Castellanos will hold that advantage today. Nick Castellanos's launch angle lately (20.9° in the last two weeks) is significantly higher than his 15.8° seasonal figure. Despite posting a .304 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nick Castellanos has experienced some negative variance given the .018 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Trea Turner is projected as the 8th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trea Turner is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Trea Turner will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Trea Turner has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 95.8-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 91.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 4th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his BABIP ability. Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Brandon Marsh will hold the platoon advantage against Bryce Elder in today's matchup. Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Brandon Marsh will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 11th-best batter in MLB. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the majors. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage over Bryce Elder today. Kyle Schwarber will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.