MLB Picks

In addition to the wind forecasted to be howling out at Kauffman Stadium this afternoon, both Minnesota starter Taj Bradley and Kansas City lefty Cole Ragans struggled with control in their season debuts and combined for seven walks across 8 1/3 innings. Both lineups rank above average in on-base percentage to start the season, so runners on the basepaths with favorable hitting conditions is a recipe for runs on the board.

The Minnesota lineup paces the majors in hard-hit percentage while ranking sixth in exit velocity to start the year, so I’m anticipating statistical correction ahead of their middling, 18th-ranked BABIP. Plus, Kansas City starter Cole Ragans served up a 58.3% hard-hit rate in his season debut and has surrendered 17 earned runs across 20 innings dating back to spring training.

Carroll enters this game hitting .333 with a 1.162 OPS through the early part of the season. He’s also been productive as hell, driving in eight runs, all coming in the D-backs' last four games.

The Atlanta Braves are trading as a -113 favorite against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and I think this price is an absolute steal—I make the Braves closer to a -170 favorite in this matchup. Ryne Nelson allowed two home runs in his season debut, lasting just 4 2/3 innings, and his cutter could get him into trouble against a Braves lineup capable of barreling the ball consistently. What really stands out is the depth of Atlanta’s lineup right now. Mauricio Dubón and Dominic Smith are both hitting over .385 to start the season, helping turn the lineup over and giving a pitcher like Nelson nowhere to breathe. If the Braves can drive up his pitch count and get into the Diamondbacks’ bullpen early, it becomes a significant advantage for Atlanta.

Ramos has solid career numbers vs. Peterson, going 3-for-8 with a .376 expected batting average and a .624 expected slugging.

Juan Soto is priced at +470 on FanDuel, offering a significant edge — roughly 100 points better than the market and about 70 points above fair value. The discount comes from the lefty-lefty matchup against Robbie Ray, but Soto has proven he can handle southpaws. The New York Mets' No. 2 hitter went deep yesterday and has recorded a hit in every game this season, showing strong early form. He also has some familiarity with Ray, with 10 career at-bats. It’s not the best power environment, but on a slate with limited late-game options, Soto at +425 or better is a clear add to the card.