MLB Picks

After hitting a solid 23 homers last season, Ian Happ has gotten off to a great start in 2026 with three dingers in seven games.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi was poor in his first game this season, giving up six hits, one homer, and six earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings. The right-hander allowed 24 homers in 23 starts last year.

Parker Messick shut out the Dodgers in his opening start and gets a Cubs offense that has scored fewer than three runs in three of their last five contests.

The Guardians’ sticks should get the best of Edward Cabrera and his history of command issues.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Rojas in the 16th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Miguel Rojas is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.. The #3 park in the league for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Miguel Rojas will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.276) suggests that Miguel Rojas has been lucky since the start of last season with his .313 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia Jr. in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Luis Garcia Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. In Major League Baseball, Nationals Park's RF dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.. The weather forecast expects the 4th-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.2-mph in this match-up, the 7th-best of the day for hitters.

Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge has picked up right where he left off with three home runs through his first seven games, including a two-run bomb against the Miami Marlins on Saturday.

The Marlins send Chris Paddack to the mound today after he was lit up for eight hits, two home runs, and eight earned runs over four innings last Monday.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 16th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. The #3 field in MLB for suppressing BABIP to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. The Miami Marlins outfield defense projects as the 5th-best out of every team today.. This season, there has been a decline in Cody Bellinger's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.21 ft/sec last year to 27.39 ft/sec currently.

Walker Buehler is a proven veteran arm and is coming off a tough start, but Ranger Suarez is a gas can that the Padres' lineup can hammer for a solid road win.

Expect a bounce-back outing for Buehler and a Padres plus-money victory. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Narvaez in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Walker Buehler will have the handedness advantage against Carlos Narvaez today.. Carlos Narvaez has had some very good luck with with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .317 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .281 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 16.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Coby Mayo in the 82nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which tends to lead to better offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 14.8-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for bats.. Extreme groundball batters like Coby Mayo tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Braxton Ashcraft.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 11th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Harrison.. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 4th-strongest out of every team in action today.. Salvador Perez's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 24.4 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.26 ft/sec now.

Gary Sanchez's BABIP ability is projected in the 3rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-least humid conditions of all games on the slate at 38%.. Gary Sanchez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.2% — 91st percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's deepest LF fences today.. Gary Sanchez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup.. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Gary Sanchez has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .346 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .288.

Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game.. The 9th-deepest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Target Field.. This matchup is predicted to have the 2nd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.307) may lead us to conclude that Trevor Larnach has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .320 actual wOBA.. Trevor Larnach's 90.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to measure power) grades out in the 22nd percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as baseball's 14th-best home run batter.. Matt Wallner is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.6-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. Matt Wallner will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Martinez in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Daulton Varsho is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate today at 48°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Daulton Varsho in today's matchup.. In the last 7 days, Daulton Varsho has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Daulton Varsho is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today's game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the 4th-lowest level on the slate today at 48°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Daulton Varsho in today's matchup.. In the last 7 days, Daulton Varsho has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 4th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Joc Pederson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 37% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average.. The 6th-deepest CF fences among all stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. Joc Pederson has been cold in recent games, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 17th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Will Benson is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. When starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season, Will Benson has been pulled from the game early 23% of the time.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average.. Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

When it comes to his home run skill, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.. Brenton Doyle has big-time HR ability (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.. Brenton Doyle will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.. Hunter Goodman has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (19th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

2025 was a year to forget for Yordan Alvarez, who hit just six dingers in 48 games due to a fracture in his hand. The Houston Astros slugger is finally back to full health, and he’s already gone yard three times in nine games.

Alvarez has been smashing the baseball with six extra-base hits, a .423 batting average, and an .885 slugging percentage.

Nick Kurtz projects as the 8th-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Kurtz is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.. Sutter Health Park ranks as the #4 ballpark in the league for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the 3rd-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of all games today.

When assessing his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for right-handed batting average.. The weather forecast calls for the 4th-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jerar Encarnacion in the 88th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for right-handed batting average.. The weather forecast calls for the 4th-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Jerar Encarnacion has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.. Jerar Encarnacion will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Mike Trout as the majors's 9th-best home run hitter.. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Angel Stadium profiles as the #7 ballpark in baseball for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 83°.

Jo Adell projects as the 18th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Angel Stadium profiles as the #7 ballpark in baseball for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest weather on the slate at 83°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 6th-strongest of the day for bats.

When estimating his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 20° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 20° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi pitched to a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He got rocked in his season debut and now he faces a Cubs lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate and is due for positive regression. The Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga to the hill. He had a 3.73 ERA last year but his FIP was significantly worse at 4.86. He also has a tendency to get hit hard and struggled in his season debut. 

The Guardians are sending Slade Cecconi to the mound after he surrendered six runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. He had a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs respond with southpaw Shota Imanaga who pitched to a 3.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP last year. Both teams are struggling at the dish but the Cubs were significantly more productive last year. They also lead the majors in hard-hit rate while the Guardians are 27th. Expect the Cubs big bats to break out against Cecconi.

Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report expects the coldest weather of all games today at 42°.. Kyle Leahy will have the handedness advantage against Gleyber Torres in today's matchup.. Gleyber Torres has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 10th-deepest RF fences today.. Gleyber Torres's speed has dropped off this year. His 26.2 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.54 ft/sec now.

Spencer Torkelson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report expects the coldest weather of all games today at 42°.. Hitting from the same side that Kyle Leahy throws from, Spencer Torkelson meets a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Putting up a lowly an 82.3-mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks' worth of games, Spencer Torkelson has been in a slump recently.