Baltimore @ Boston Picks & Props

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense. Lucas Giolito will have the handedness advantage over Ryan Mountcastle today. Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ryan Mountcastle today. Placing in the 10th percentile, Ryan Mountcastle has put up a .254 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense. Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Gunnar Henderson today. Over the last week, Gunnar Henderson's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%. Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off in recent games, decreasing from 8.5% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense. As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Adley Rutschman will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Lucas Giolito in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Adley Rutschman in today's matchup. Adley Rutschman has recorded a .235 BABIP this year, placing in the 10th percentile.

Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to less offense. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage against Zach Eflin in today's game. In terms of plate discipline, Jarren Duran's talent is quite poor, putting up a 3.83 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 22nd percentile.

Rafael Devers projects as the 14th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 venue in the league for left-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Rafael Devers will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 venue in the league for left-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ryan O'Hearn will have the handedness advantage over Lucas Giolito today. Ryan O'Hearn has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Kristian Campbell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences in MLB. Zach Eflin will have the handedness advantage over Kristian Campbell today.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jorge Mateo hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Zach Eflin will have the handedness advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Fenway Park ranks as the #4 venue in the league for left-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest RF fences among all parks. Dylan Carlson has done a favorable job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-hit balls. His 18.9° figure is among the highest in baseball since the start of last season (89th percentile).

Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Nick Sogard will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Zach Eflin in today's matchup. Nick Sogard pulls many of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Nick Sogard will hold that advantage today. Nick Sogard has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 5.6% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Rob Refsnyder meets a tough challenge in today's matchup. Rob Refsnyder pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.2% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Trevor Story is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Trevor Story will have a tough challenge in today's matchup. Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

Ramon Urias is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ramon Urias hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the last 14 days, Ramon Urias has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 31° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.3°.

Emmanuel Rivera is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Emmanuel Rivera hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Emmanuel Rivera has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph to 96.3-mph in the last week's worth of games. Emmanuel Rivera's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased of late, increasing from 11.1% on the season to 50% in the last week.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences in MLB. Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Connor Wong faces a tough challenge today. Connor Wong will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Placing in the 92nd percentile, Connor Wong sits with a .331 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heston Kjerstad in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Fenway Park ranks as the #4 venue in the league for left-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Heston Kjerstad will have the upper hand today. Heston Kjerstad has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Heston Kjerstad has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .257 figure is quite a bit lower than his .303 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences in MLB. The switch-hitting Abraham Toro will bat from his worse side (0) today against Zach Eflin Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Abraham Toro will hold that advantage today.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 venue in baseball for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences in MLB. Extreme flyball batters like Maverick Handley tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.

Fenway Park ranks as the #4 venue in the league for left-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Cedric Mullins will have the handedness advantage over Lucas Giolito in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. There has been a significant improvement in Cedric Mullins's launch angle from last season's 21.5° to 24.9° this season.