Freddie Freeman o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller probably saw this road date with the Los Angeles Dodgers on the calendar and immediately dreaded it. One L.A. bat who has consistently given him trouble is Freddie Freeman. The star first baseman is 8-for-15 with a .533/.588/.800 slash line against Keller in their respective careers, and only one of those 15 at-bats has resulted in a punchout. Keller’s 4.18 ERA and 3.92 FIP don’t look too bad on the surface, but his 5.77 xERA is worrisome. The former second round pick doesn’t make batters miss (16.1% K rate, 11th percentile whiff rate) and has been hit around (fifth percentile xBA). With a fortuitous matchup and Freeman at the top of his game, his -105 odds of recording multiple total bases on Saturday are too good to pass up as a best bet.
The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense grades out as the 4th-strongest among every team in action today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Isiah Kiner-Falefa hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.
The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense grades out as the 4th-strongest among every team in action today. In the past week, Shohei Ohtani's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 17.5% down to 0%. Shohei Ohtani's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 94.2-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 78.7-mph in the past week.
This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences today. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tommy Pham's true offensive talent to be a .307, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .083 difference between that mark and his actual .224 wOBA.
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Oneil Cruz ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.
Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Batting from the opposite that Roki Sasaki throws from, Adam Frazier will have an advantage today. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez as the 20th-best hitter in the game when assessing his BABIP talent. Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Teoscar Hernandez will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Batting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Michael Conforto will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Michael Conforto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today. Ke'Bryan Hayes has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last season's 88.7-mph EV.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tommy Edman in the 84th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Tommy Edman is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 78th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Joey Bart is penciled in 5th in the lineup today. Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Dodger Stadium has the 8th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Andy Pages will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Mookie Betts projects as the 18th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Mookie Betts is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
Enmanuel Valdez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Enmanuel Valdez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Roki Sasaki today. Extreme groundball bats like Enmanuel Valdez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Roki Sasaki.
This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games today (75%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased strikeouts) when the weather is humid. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters. Max Muncy will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller today. Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst on the slate today). Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Max Muncy will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Last Meeting ( Apr 25, 2025 ) Pittsburgh 3, LA Dodgers 0
Shohei Ohtani will take another crack at recovering from his current downturn when the Los Angeles Dodgers play host to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Saturday in the middle contest of a three-game series.
Ohtani is 2-for-16 with six strikeouts going back to Sunday when he returned from a short absence to attend the birth of his first child. But the three-time MVP has not been up to his standard all season, batting .250 with an .814 OPS.
He does have six home runs with 23 runs but has just eight RBIs.
"I don't know if he's trying to do something, trying too hard," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. "There's a couple walks in there. But there's other times where he's getting himself out instead of taking a walk if given to him."
Friday figured to be a long night for the Dodgers anyway while up against Pirates ace Paul Skenes. Ohtani went 0-for-4, while the Dodgers were kept off the scoreboard for the second time this season in a 3-0 defeat.
While Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched for Los Angeles on Friday, fellow Japan countryman Roki Sasaki (0-1, 3.20 ERA) will take the mound Saturday. In his most recent start, the fifth of the rookie right-hander's career, Sasaki gave up two runs on two hits and three walks in six innings but took the loss in a 4-3 defeat to the Texas Rangers.
Sasaki managed to extend his outing to a career best in innings, on just 78 pitches, even as his fastball registered 92 mph in the early innings, after he was nearly at 97 mph over his first four starts.
"My command of my fastball and my offspeed were pretty good, so I'm really happy with that," Sasaki said through an interpreter. "I was surprised with the fastball velo in the first inning myself. But I was able to really kind of dig into what I needed to do and make some mechanical changes. I was able to increase the velo a little bit."
The Pirates will counter with right-hander Mitch Keller (1-2, 4.18), who earned the win in his 2025 debut but has gone 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in his last four starts. He gave up two runs on five hits over five innings of a no-decision against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday.
Keller will look to continue a solid six-game road trip to the Los Angeles area for the Pirates, who are 3-1 against the Angels and Dodgers so far. Keller is 2-3 with a 7.54 ERA in five lifetime starts against the Dodgers.
Skenes set the blueprint for Keller on how to control the Dodgers when he gave up five hits with nine strikeouts and no walks in his 6 1/3 innings.
While the overall night was positive for Pittsburgh on Friday, leadoff man Oneil Cruz appeared to experience right side discomfort following a 117.6-mph RBI single to right field in the fifth inning. He was examined by a trainer but remained in the game.
Cruz belted home runs in the final two games of the series against the Angels and hit a 119.6 mph line out to end Thursday's loss to the Angels before his blistering single Friday while scoring two runs.
"He just got good pitches to hit," Pirates manager Derek Shelton said of Cruz. "He's not going outside the zone, and he got the barrel on the ball."
--Field Level Media
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