MLB Picks

After hitting a solid 23 homers last season, Ian Happ has gotten off to a great start in 2026 with three dingers in seven games.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi was poor in his first game this season, giving up six hits, one homer, and six earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings. The right-hander allowed 24 homers in 23 starts last year.

Parker Messick shut out the Dodgers in his opening start and gets a Cubs offense that has scored fewer than three runs in three of their last five contests.

The Guardians’ sticks should get the best of Edward Cabrera and his history of command issues.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Rojas in the 16th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Miguel Rojas is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.. The #3 park in the league for suppressing batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park.. Miguel Rojas will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 13th-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The weather forecast expects the 4th-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.2-mph in this match-up, the 7th-best of the day for hitters.. Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.6% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge has picked up right where he left off with three home runs through his first seven games, including a two-run bomb against the Miami Marlins on Saturday.

The Marlins send Chris Paddack to the mound today after he was lit up for eight hits, two home runs, and eight earned runs over four innings last Monday.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 96th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Among all parks, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate (75%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.

Walker Buehler is a proven veteran arm and is coming off a tough start, but Ranger Suarez is a gas can that the Padres' lineup can hammer for a solid road win.

Expect a bounce-back outing for Buehler and a Padres plus-money victory. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Narvaez in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Walker Buehler will have the handedness advantage against Carlos Narvaez today.. Carlos Narvaez has had some very good luck with with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .317 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .281 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 13th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 14.8-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for bats.. Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's game... and the cherry on top, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Taylor Ward ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 14.8-mph in this match-up, the most-favorable of the day for bats.. Extreme flyball bats like Taylor Ward generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Braxton Ashcraft.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 11th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Harrison.. The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 4th-strongest out of every team in action today.. Salvador Perez's footspeed has dropped off this year. His 24.4 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.26 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to better offense.. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Starling Marte will have an edge in today's game.. Hitters such as Starling Marte with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kyle Harrison who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Trevor Larnach is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game.. The 9th-deepest CF fences among all major league parks are found in Target Field.. This matchup is predicted to have the 2nd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.307) may lead us to conclude that Trevor Larnach has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .320 actual wOBA.. Trevor Larnach's 90.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable stat to measure power) grades out in the 22nd percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-best venue in the game for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.6-mph in this game, the 4th-best of the day for batters.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams playing today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Royce Lewis will hold that advantage in today's game.. In the past week's worth of games, Royce Lewis has displayed impressive power, recording a a 22.2% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Munetaka Murakami in the 3rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the 5th-lowest level on the slate today at 46°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Eric Lauer will hold the platoon advantage over Munetaka Murakami in today's matchup.. The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the 4th-best among every team on the slate today.. Over the past two weeks, Munetaka Murakami's swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 25% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to drop to the 5th-lowest level on the slate today at 46°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. Addison Barger will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game.. In the last week's worth of games, Addison Barger has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power).. Addison Barger has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs of late, lifting balls between 23° and 34° just 0% of the time in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joc Pederson in the 4th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Joc Pederson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 37% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average.. The 6th-deepest CF fences among all stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. Joc Pederson has been cold in recent games, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) in the last week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 17th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Will Benson is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.. When starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season, Will Benson has been pulled from the game early 23% of the time.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Globe Life Field as the worst ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average.. Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

When it comes to his home run skill, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.. Brenton Doyle has big-time HR ability (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.. Brenton Doyle will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 95th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Coors Field profiles as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.. Hunter Goodman has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Taijuan Walker is a pitch-to-contact type (19th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.

2025 was a year to forget for Yordan Alvarez, who hit just six dingers in 48 games due to a fracture in his hand. The Houston Astros slugger is finally back to full health, and he’s already gone yard three times in nine games.

Alvarez has been smashing the baseball with six extra-base hits, a .423 batting average, and an .885 slugging percentage.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Brent Rooker ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Brent Rooker is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Sutter Health Park ranks as the #4 ballpark in the league for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. On average, the fence height at Sutter Health Park is the 3rd-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts for the 3rd-best hitting conditions of all games today.

When assessing his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for right-handed batting average.. The weather forecast calls for the 5th-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run talent, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the 4th-best ballpark in baseball for right-handed batting average.. The weather forecast calls for the 5th-best hitting weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Francisco Alvarez has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.. Out of all the teams playing today, the 4th-worst infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 91st percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Luke Raley is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The #7 park in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

When it comes to his home run ability, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #7 park in MLB for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. On average, the fence height at Angel Stadium is the shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Dominic Canzone will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Johnson in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in baseball for righty batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 20° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best ballpark in the majors for LHB batting average.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. The Chase Field roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 20° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Mike Yastrzemski will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi pitched to a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He got rocked in his season debut and now he faces a Cubs lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate and is due for positive regression. The Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga to the hill. He had a 3.73 ERA last year but his FIP was significantly worse at 4.86. He also has a tendency to get hit hard and struggled in his season debut. 

The Guardians are sending Slade Cecconi to the mound after he surrendered six runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. He had a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs respond with southpaw Shota Imanaga who pitched to a 3.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP last year. Both teams are struggling at the dish but the Cubs were significantly more productive last year. They also lead the majors in hard-hit rate while the Guardians are 27th. Expect the Cubs big bats to break out against Cecconi.

Spencer Torkelson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today's game.. Low temperatures are strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather report expects the coldest weather of all games today at 43°.. Hitting from the same side that Kyle Leahy throws from, Spencer Torkelson meets a tough challenge in today's matchup.. Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 5th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Putting up a lowly an 82.3-mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks' worth of games, Spencer Torkelson has been in a slump recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colt Keith in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Colt Keith is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Comerica Park grades out as the #10 park in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Comerica Park has the 2nd-shortest fence height (on average) in MLB.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.