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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 16, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.14 |
+150 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -139
|
|
4.66 |
-170 
|
u8.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +130
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Nathaniel Lowe o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+140)
o1.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.71 |
+140 
|
o7.5 -130
|
+1.5 -156 
|
|
4.82 |
-155
|
u8.5 -124
|
-1.5 +145
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Giants last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+148)
o0.5+148
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.75 |
-140
|
o7.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.19 |
+128
|
u8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -135
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 7-0 in Rodons last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rodons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
o0.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.87 |
+105
|
o8.0 -129
|
+1.5 -198
|
|
4.74 |
-118 
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +170
|
Detroit
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in Monteros last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
George Springer o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
+165
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -134
|
|
4.81 |
-184
|
u8.5 -132
|
-1.5 +122
|
Athletics
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a road underdog.
- are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Jonah Heim o0.5 Total Home Runs (+880)
o0.5+900
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.74 |
-200
|
o8.5 +100 
|
-1.5 -124
|
|
4.13 |
+180
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 +110
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 6-1 in Snells last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
o0.5+283
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
-135
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.56 |
+120
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -135
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Jones' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
o0.5+215
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.91 |
-190
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 -110
|
|
4.32 |
+170
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -105
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Phillies are 9-1 in Wheelers last 10 starts vs. National League East.
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 home starts.
- Nationals are 4-0 in Cavallis last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+182
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.48 |
+123
|
o8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -167
|
|
5.38 |
-138
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-0 in Bassitts last 9 road starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Mets last 6 interleague home games.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.12 |
+120
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.74 |
-140
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +155
|
Atlanta
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 vs. National League Central.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Ozzie Albies o0.5 Total RBIs (+241)
o0.5+241
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
-105
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.02 |
-108
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +150
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 home games.
Top Projection
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+242
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
+121
|
o8.5 -121
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.79 |
-140
|
u9.0 -114
|
-1.5 +152
|
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 on grass.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games as an underdog.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Javiers last 9 starts during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Maikel Garcia o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.26 |
-165
|
o11.0 -125
|
-1.5 -108
|
|
5.55 |
+145
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 -105
|
San Diego
- Padres are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
-135
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.13 |
+120
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -145
|
Seattle
- Over is 8-0 in Mariners last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Kirbys last 5 road starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
+115
|
o8.5 -130
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.20 |
-130
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +160
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0-2 in Kellys last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
o0.5+199
CHW
@
CLE
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Munetaka Murakami projects as the 2nd-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Munetaka Murakami is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. Progressive Field grades out as the #2 field in the game for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 80%.. In the last week, Munetaka Murakami's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 100.2-mph over the course of the season to 103.7-mph lately.
Total Hits
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+150)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When starting against a left-handed starter this year, Randal Grichuk has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 67% of the time.. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Randal Grichuk in today's matchup.. Randal Grichuk has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 11.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 14 days.. Randal Grichuk has been lucky this year, notching a .371 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .045 difference.
SF
@
STL
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:15 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Matthew Liberatore o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+126)
Projection 5.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the most strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the San Francisco Giants with a 27.6% underlying K%.. Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Matthew Liberatore will hold that advantage today.. Matthew Liberatore's slider usage has spiked by 5.9% from last year to this one (21.1% to 27%) .
Total RBIs
Ivan Herrera o0.5 Total RBIs (+211)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 90°.. Ivan Herrera hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
NYY
@
MIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Josh Bell o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Josh Bell is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Josh Bell will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Josh Bell has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 9.8% seasonal rate to 20% over the past week.. Josh Bell has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 101.6-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 93.1-mph.
Total Bases
Austin Wells u1.5 Total Bases (-275)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Austin Wells's BABIP ability is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Wells is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game.. This year, Austin Wells has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 23% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 5th-worst stadium in MLB for left-handed home runs.. The 10th-deepest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Target Field.
DET
@
TOR
Wed, Sep 16 • 3:07 PM ET
Total Bases
Gleyber Torres o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.45
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Gleyber Torres's batting average skill is projected to be in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gleyber Torres is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Using Statcast metrics, Gleyber Torres grades out in the 83rd percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .350.
Total Bases
Kevin McGonigle o1.5 Total Bases (+118)
Projection 1.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Kevin McGonigle is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. The #5 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Kevin McGonigle will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer in today's game.
ATH
@
TB
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+118)
Projection 2.16
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Shea Langeliers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 stadium in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Total Bases
Zack Gelof o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Zack Gelof ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zack Gelof is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 stadium in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Zack Gelof has a ton of pop (83rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Nick Martinez struggles to strike batters out (16th percentile K%) — great news for Gelof.. Zack Gelof has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.8% seasonal rate to 21.2% over the past two weeks.
LAD
@
CIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Miguel Rojas u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his home run skill, Miguel Rojas ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Miguel Rojas is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Miguel Rojas today.. Miguel Rojas's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 90.1-mph figure last year has dropped off to 87.6-mph.
Total Bases
Enrique Hernandez u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Enrique Hernandez in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Enrique Hernandez is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.. Out of all the teams today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Enrique Hernandez today.. Enrique Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 18.9% to 4.5%.
MIL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 18th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Henderson in today's game.
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 18th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Henderson in today's game.
PHI
@
WAS
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+163)
Projection 0.7
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bryce Harper ranks as the 9th-best batter in the majors.. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. The 6th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Cavalli throws from, Bryce Harper will have an edge today.
Total RBIs
Abimelec Ortiz o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
Projection 0.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Abimelec Ortiz is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The 6th-shallowest RF dimensions among all parks are found in Nationals Park.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Because of Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, Abimelec Ortiz will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Abimelec Ortiz will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.
BAL
@
NYM
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 2.02
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and moreover, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Coby Mayo o1.5 Total Bases (+146)
Projection 1.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Coby Mayo ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coby Mayo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Coby Mayo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Coby Mayo has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 103.5-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal average of 95-mph.. Coby Mayo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 15.7% to 19.2%.
ATL
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
At 45%, give me the Atlanta Braves to defeat the Chicago Cubs, as I think they should be trading closer to 49% in this matchup. JR Ritchie is on the mound for the Braves, but I don't expect him to go deep into the game. Fortunately, Atlanta has the relievers necessary to piece together a strong pitching performance against the left-handed bats in the Cubs' lineup. Left-handed reliever Dylan Lee hasn't pitched yet in this series, Raisel Iglesias has always been tough on left-handed hitters because of his changeup, and the Braves have multiple other lefties in the bullpen in Ray Kerr and Dylan Dodd. This breakdown is about neutralizing the power of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, if that wasn't obvious already. The Cubs' bullpen, on the other hand, ranks last in fWAR over the last 30 days.
Total Bases
Michael Conforto o1.5 Total Bases (+300)
Projection 1.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Batting from the opposite that JR Ritchie throws from, Michael Conforto will have an edge in today's game.. Michael Conforto will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.. In notching a .341 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Michael Conforto finds himself in the 76th percentile.. Michael Conforto has notched a .357 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, placing in the 94th percentile.
BOS
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 5th-best among every team playing today.
Total Bases
Danny Jansen u1.5 Total Bases (-310)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Danny Jansen's BABIP ability is projected in the 1st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Danny Jansen is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.. The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.
KC
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Hits
Jose Altuve u0.5 Total Hits (+200)
Projection 0.94
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The #3 stadium in the league for suppressing batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to less offense.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Kansas City Royals.. Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 92.1-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 88.6-mph over the last 14 days.
Total Bases
Carter Jensen u1.5 Total Bases (-175)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 6th-worst ballpark in the majors for run-scoring.. In the majors, the 3rd-highest average fence height are at Minute Maid Park.. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Extreme flyball hitters like Carter Jensen generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristian Javier.. Carter Jensen will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.
SD
@
COL
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Connor Norby o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Connor Norby will have the upper hand today.
Total Bases
Manny Machado o1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Projection 2.14
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Manny Machado ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.. Manny Machado has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.2% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the past two weeks' worth of games.
SEA
@
LAA
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:38 PM ET
Moneyline
LAA (+118)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Yusei Kikuchi’s season numbers aren’t pretty, but his recent form tells a different story, allowing just three earned runs over his last 17 innings. Neither offense inspires much confidence, so I’m happy to take the plus money with the hotter starter. Kikuchi also owns a 1.32 ERA across six career starts against Seattle.
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cal Raleigh projects as the 4th-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. Out of all the teams today, the 4th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.. Despite posting a .295 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Cal Raleigh has been unlucky given the .049 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .344.
MIA
@
AZ
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Ryan Gusto u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-115)
Projection 3.22
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Ryan Gusto is projected to throw 81 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least on the slate.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-worst stadium in the league for strikeouts.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto today.
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+134)
Projection 1.88
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heriberto Hernandez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Chase Field projects as the #3 park in the league for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
BOS
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-119)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has become somewhat of an ageless wonder for the Red Sox, and the veteran right-hander has limited Texas hitters to a lifetime .505 OPS. With Gray on the hill, Boston is playable to -135.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs
Cody Bellinger o0.5 Total RBIs (+206)
Projection 0.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Cody Bellinger is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's game.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
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