MLB Picks

The Under cashed in Wednesday's game, and it's almost a foregone conclusion that the Tigers won't be allowing many runs with Skubal on the hill. The bullpen was also elite after Casey Mize exited in Game 2 of the series. Sproat has calmed down lately, and while I do expect Detroit to score runs off him, it won't be a ton. 

While the wind is forecasted to be blowing out to right field Thursday afternoon, the Philly lineup has only scored 16 times during its eight-game losing streak, starter Cristopher Sanchez sports dominant 1.59 ERA backed by a 31.7 strikeout percentage and 59.2% groundball rate. It's the perfect recipe for an Under, and this is also a getaway game, with both the Phillies and Cubs playing on the road Friday. As a result, I don’t expect Sanchez or Chicago righty Edward Cabrera to face the toughest lineups their opponents can send to the dish Thursday afternoon.

Don’t sweat the vig. Dodgers righty Tyler Glasnow has held opposing batters to a .182 average while spinning a tidy 3.08 xFIP and dominant 30.8 K% since joining the club in 2024, and the Giants send a middling offense to the dish against righties (.320 wOBA and .121 ISO). San Fran has also won consecutive games to start the series, so I’m anticipating the Los Angeles offense putting crooked numbers on the board against Logan Webb. The Dodgers lead the majors in wOBA against righties, and Webb has surrendered 51.6% hard-hit rate alongside his 5.40 ERA.

This Under lives and dies with Schlittler, and that's a bet worth making. He’ll get plenty of chase (Boston’s top 7 whiff rate and bottom 7 chase contact rate looms large) and that should be the story. Sure, Tolle's command issues could let the Yankees get to four or five runs, but this still doesn't feel like an eight-run ballgame.

Let’s back the hot hand in Buxton, who has gone deep in back-to-back games and has all five of his homers this year over his last eight games. His +360 price still shows positive expected value, with a fair range around +320/+330. The Minnesota Twins face call-up Christian Scott, who has allowed home runs in Triple-A and gave up eight in just 47 innings last season. He struggles to keep the ball on the ground, posting 94 fly-ball outs to just 49 ground-ball outs last year. This sets up as one of the hottest bats in the league against a fringe MLB starter and a league-average bullpen.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are offering strong expected value today, trading at +140 with a fair price closer to +111, per THE BAT. It’s easy to see why. The starting pitching gap isn’t as wide as it looks, with Bubba Chandler trending up after a slow start, while Jacob deGrom lasted just 12 outs last time and is averaging around 85 pitches per start.  deGrom is great, but might be too priced in considering a potential 90-pitch leash. Both bullpens rate above league average, and Pittsburgh has nearly a full group available. Offensively, there isn’t a clear edge for the Texas Rangers. deGrom’s reputation is too priced in for a pitcher who may not go deep, making +140 too long for a capable Pirates side.