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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 23, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.63 |
+154 
|
o7.5 -130
|
+1.5 -141 
|
|
3.87 |
-175 
|
u8.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +125 
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Valdezs last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Valdezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+105
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -225
|
|
4.33 |
-120
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +175
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.43 |
-148 
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +116
|
|
3.21 |
+130
|
u8.0 -120 
|
+1.5 -134
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-3 in Prielipps last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in Twins last 9 games following a win.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games as a road underdog.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Connor Prielipp o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
o4.5-170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.45 |
-138
|
o7.5 -102 
|
-1.5 +128
|
|
4.16 |
+120
|
u7.5 -113
|
+1.5 -144 
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Nolas last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Nolas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
o0.5+290
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
+100
|
o7.5 -112
|
+1.5 -216
|
|
4.15 |
-113
|
u8.0 -120
|
-1.5 +163
|
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Liberatores last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0-1 in Cardinals last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Bachars last 6 starts on grass.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
o0.5+214
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.88 |
+135
|
o6.5 -139
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.03 |
-150
|
u7.5 -140
|
-1.5 +156
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Coles last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.88 |
+114
|
o7.0 -117
|
+1.5 -197
|
|
3.85 |
-130
|
u7.5 -122
|
-1.5 +170
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+203)
o0.5+203
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.95 |
+220
|
o7.5 +103
|
+1.5 -110
|
|
4.96 |
-250
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 -102
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 4-0-2 in Reds last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+165)
o1.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.95 |
-113
|
o8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.99 |
+100
|
u8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -170
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-0 in Feddes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lugos last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Lugos last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.94 |
+150
|
o6.5 -132
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.77 |
-170
|
u7.0 -114
|
-1.5 +135
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+235)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
-107
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
3.88 |
+100
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -170
|
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. American League West.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Rangers last 9 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+202
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.42 |
-155
|
o10.5 -140
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
5.30 |
+135
|
u11.5 -132
|
+1.5 -112
|
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Kellys last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+167)
o0.5+167
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.38 |
-129
|
o9.5 -105
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.74 |
+116
|
u9.5 -109
|
+1.5 -140
|
LA Angels
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Athletics
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 home starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
o0.5+143
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.77 |
+182
|
o7.0 -200
|
+3.5 -286
|
|
5.08 |
-210
|
u8.5 -120
|
-3.5 +225
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 during game 2 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Yamamotos last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
o0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.82 |
+125
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.43 |
-140
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +145
|
Houston
- Under is 7-0-2 in Astros last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+182)
o0.5+182
WAS
@
DET
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:10 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-129)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 60%. Washington’s pitching setup creates plenty of scoring potential, while the Nationals themselves have been productive against left-handed arms. That gives both sides a path to contributing offensively. Even with Detroit’s bullpen pitching well, there should be enough volatility here for this game to reach eight runs.
Spread
DET -1.5 (+121)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 50%. Detroit gets an ideal matchup against a Washington bullpen game, especially with the Tigers carrying a 128 wRC+ over the last week. The Nationals’ relief corps has been shaky and vulnerable to power, giving Detroit plenty of chances to build a multi-run cushion.
TOR
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Pick made: 18 hours ago
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
What's wrong with a little double-dip on Springer tonight? Not only does he have strong numbers against Bassitt (2 HR, .631 xSLG), but six of his 15 homers this year have come off breaking balls - and we all know the veteran righty loves to throw the kitchen sink at hitters. If someone is going yard tonight, Springer is the most likely candidate, and at +850, we can't turn down that price.
Total
o7.5 (+100)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'd price this closer to -110, so we're going to take advantage of this value. The Blue Jays see a familiar face on the bump in Chris Bassitt tonight, and while he's been fine over his last two starts, his 4.96 xERA suggests Toronto should be able to get to him. I'm expecting the Blue Jays to manufacture runs, with Bassitt posting a career-high xBA (.279) and career-low K rate (16.4%) this season. On the other side is Max Scherzer, who Baltimore just tagged for six earned runs 11 days ago. No matter how you slice it, tonight looks like we'll see some offensive fireworks.
MIN
@
SF
Wed, Sep 23 • 3:45 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Connor Prielipp o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
Projection 6.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Connor Prielipp in the 81st percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.. The San Francisco Giants have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jonah Cox, Grant McCray, Shay Whitcomb, Drew Cavanaugh).. Dillon Wilson profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be calling pitches in this game.. Oracle Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. Out of all starting pitchers, Connor Prielipp's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 76th percentile this year.
Total Bases
Shay Whitcomb u1.5 Total Bases (-290)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Shay Whitcomb ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Shay Whitcomb is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.. The #2 venue in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. Oracle Park has the highest average fence height in the majors.. Oracle Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.
MIL
@
PHI
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
PHI (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Philadelphia Phillies are trading as a 45% underdog on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to a 49% underdog against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. The edge really comes down to the sense of urgency for both teams. The Phillies are locked in a three-way battle for seeding in the NL Wild Card race, while the Brewers are in the driver's seat for the top seed in the NL and have already clinched a bye into the NLDS. I'd expect the Brewers to prioritize pitch-count preservation for Logan Henderson and their high-leverage bullpen arms, while the Phillies will be managing this game with a greater sense of urgency.
Moneyline
MIL (-136)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Milwaukee has won eight of its last 10, and I like the pitching advantage with Logan Henderson. The right-hander owns a 2.51 ERA and 0.81 WHIP and has allowed just eight earned runs over his last five starts. Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola and a bullpen carrying a 4.34 ERA. With the Brewers owning MLB's best record and getting the better starter and relief corps, -136 is a price I'm willing to lay.
STL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Masyn Winn o1.5 Total Bases (+260)
Projection 1.17
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
PNC Park ranks as the #3 venue in the league for righty base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Despite posting a .282 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Masyn Winn has been unlucky given the .014 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .296.
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In the majors, the 6th-tallest fences are at PNC Park.. Dingers are generally less common at venues with deep fences, and PNC Park has the 7th-deepest among all major league stadiums.. The weather report expects the 2nd-most favorable pitching weather on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 9-mph in this game, the 6th-strongest of the day for pitchers.. Hitting from the same side that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Brandon Lowe has a tough challenge in today's matchup.
TB
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Junior Caminero has averaged 36.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 97th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. This year, Junior Caminero's 13% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 89th percentile among his peers.
Total Home Runs
Taylor Walls o0.5 Total Home Runs (+1400)
Projection 0.08
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Taylor Walls is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The #9 field in the game for boosting home runs to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this season (18.6°) is significantly higher than his 14.9° angle last season.
CLE
@
BOS
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-120)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has been excellent down the stretch, posting a 2.61 ERA over his last five starts while averaging six innings per outing. Four of those five games finished with seven runs or fewer. Foster Griffin has a 3.06 ERA of his own and held Boston to one run over five innings earlier this season. With two starters capable of working deep, I'm backing Under 7.5.
Total Hits
Isiah Kiner-Falefa u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Isiah Kiner-Falefa ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to worse offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the most favorable for pitching on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the best of the day for mound aces.
CIN
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Michael Harris II o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Michael Harris II is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Truist Park as the 4th-best field in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to LHB.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. This game is expected to have the most humidity on the slate (83%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
Total Bases
Sean Murphy u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Sean Murphy is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today's game.. Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.. Sean Murphy has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 13.1% rate last year has dropped off to 7.9% this year.. Sean Murphy's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 89-mph EV last season has dropped off to 86.7-mph.
CHW
@
KC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The deepest RF fences in the majors are found in Kauffman Stadium.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.6-mph in this match-up, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. The Kansas City Royals infield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of all the teams today.. Munetaka Murakami will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.. Munetaka Murakami is in the 1st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (35.8% rate this year).
Total Bases
Miguel Vargas o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 97th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. This season, Miguel Vargas has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 94.4 mph compared to last year's 91.8 mph mark.
MIA
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Dansby Swanson o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.35
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Wrigley Field has the 7th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate (82%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Dansby Swanson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Michael Busch o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Michael Busch is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate (82%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, Michael Busch will have the upper hand in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Michael Busch will hold that advantage today.
NYM
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Brandon Nimmo o0.5 Total Home Runs (+830)
Projection 0.13
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 114° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Nolan McLean throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an advantage today.
Total Bases
Francisco Lindor o1.5 Total Bases (+119)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 114° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Cody Bradford.
AZ
@
COL
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Ketel Marte o0.5 Total RBIs (+115)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Ketel Marte ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Despite posting a .322 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ketel Marte has been unlucky given the .027 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.
Total RBIs
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+121)
Projection 0.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Hunter Goodman projects as the 14th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Hunter Goodman will hold that advantage today.
LAA
@
ATH
Wed, Sep 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Henry Bolte o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his BABIP talent, Henry Bolte is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Henry Bolte has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.
Strikeouts Thrown
Walbert Urena u5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-159)
Projection 4.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Walbert Urena to throw 85 pitches in today's game (11th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Felix Neon profiles as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate today.. The #6 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.. Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Walbert Urena in today's matchup.
SD
@
LAD
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.88
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 16th-best batter in the game.. Will Smith is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Will Smith will have the handedness advantage over Robbie Ray in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Kyle Tucker u1.5 Total Bases (-240)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kyle Tucker is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Hitting from the same side that Robbie Ray throws from, Kyle Tucker meets a tough challenge in today's game.. Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 75th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-deepest RF fences today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Tucker usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.
HOU
@
SEA
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.. Based on Statcast data, Christian Walker grades out in the 78th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 26.400.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-115)
Projection 2.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in the game.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage against George Kirby today.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
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Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
