Boston @ Toronto Picks & Props

The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre.

The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Louie Varland will have the handedness advantage over Connor Wong today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Connor Wong's true offensive skill to be a .297, suggesting that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .067 disparity between that mark and his actual .230 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 77th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Andres Gimenez will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Andres Gimenez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Last season, Andres Gimenez had an average launch angle of 9.2° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 12.9°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. By putting up a .328 BABIP this year, Jarren Duran has performed in the 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Batting from the same side that Louie Varland throws from, Rob Refsnyder faces a tough challenge in today's matchup. Rob Refsnyder has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last year's 89.5-mph average. Rob Refsnyder's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 11.8% to 22.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 9th-best batter in MLB when assessing his BABIP ability. Romy Gonzalez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Louie Varland will have the handedness advantage against Romy Gonzalez today. Romy Gonzalez hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Romy Gonzalez has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last year's 92.7-mph figure.

Masataka Yoshida's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Masataka Yoshida has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.8-mph to 92-mph over the last two weeks. Compared to his seasonal average of 5.7°, Masataka Yoshida has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 9° mark in the last 7 days.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Extreme flyball batters like Anthony Santander usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Anthony Santander will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Anthony Santander has been unlucky this year, posting a .255 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .327 — a .072 discrepancy.

The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Louie Varland will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Narvaez today. Carlos Narvaez has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.5-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 91.2-mph mark. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.5°, Carlos Narvaez has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 21.9° figure in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 77th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Louie Varland will hold the platoon advantage over Ceddanne Rafaela in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Ceddanne Rafaela's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 41.7% on the season to 68.8% in the past week. Ceddanne Rafaela has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .303 figure is deflated compared to his .318 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Wilyer Abreu's launch angle this season (23.3°) is quite a bit higher than his 19° mark last year. Wilyer Abreu's 12.8% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) is in the 82nd percentile this year. This year, Wilyer Abreu has an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph, which is among the best in MLB at the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the same side that Louie Varland throws from, Alex Bregman has a tough challenge today. Alex Bregman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today. Alex Bregman has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last season's 90.9-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best batter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average skill. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.401) may lead us to conclude that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had bad variance on his side this year with his .371 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Alejandro Kirk will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. In comparison to his 89.3-mph average last year, Alejandro Kirk's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 91.3 mph.

Addison Barger is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Addison Barger will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Addison Barger will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. In comparison to his 88.1-mph average last year, Addison Barger's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 91.7 mph.

Trevor Story's BABIP skill is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Louie Varland will hold the platoon advantage against Trevor Story in today's matchup. Trevor Story has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.2% seasonal rate to 23.8% over the past week.

Tyler Heineman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Tyler Heineman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Tyler Heineman's 20.1° launch angle (a reliable standard to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in the game: 88th percentile. Tyler Heineman has posted a .346 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 85th percentile. Grading out in the 95th percentile, Tyler Heineman has put up a .295 batting average this year.

The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Daulton Varsho will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's game... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. Extreme flyball bats like Daulton Varsho tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Daulton Varsho will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Daulton Varsho has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, upping his 6.4% rate last year to 17.2% this season.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), George Springer ranks as the 20th-best batter in the league. George Springer is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. George Springer hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. George Springer will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. George Springer has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.3% rate last season to 16.6% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Nathan Lukes has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (58% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Nathan Lukes will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Nathan Lukes will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Schneider in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Bats such as Davis Schneider with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Davis Schneider will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Last year, Davis Schneider had an average launch angle of 23.4° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 27.7°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. The 9th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Ernie Clement will hold that advantage today. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.7°, Ernie Clement has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 26.4° figure over the past 14 days. By putting up a .278 batting average this year, Ernie Clement finds himself in the 85th percentile.