It's another busy day in the majors, with lots of home run value on the board. My MLB player props analysis for Thursday, September 25 will include Freddie Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Francisco Alvarez.
Best MLB home run props today
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Freeman (+582) -
Guerrero Jr (+491) -
Alvarez (+535) - 💲 +25982 parlay💲
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HR Prop #1: Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman is having another impressive season for the defending World Series champions, serving as a key piece in the heart of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ lineup. The slugger is batting .291 with 21 home runs and 85 RBI.
While we’ve seen Freeman smack a lot more bombs before, he’s still very capable of going deep.
The veteran has three round-trippers in September, and he’s in the midst of a four-game hitting streak. Freeman will be excited for today’s matchup, as the Arizona Diamondbacks send Zac Gallen to the hill. Freeman is 7-for-27 lifetime against him with a pair of homers.
Freeman has cracked 14 of his long balls off right-handed pitchers. He’s also batting .298 versus righties. Gallen has allowed four homers across his last three starts.
HR Prop #2: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Toronto Blue Jays are suddenly tied for first place with the New York Yankees, and they badly need a victory tonight against the Boston Red Sox. Any contributions from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would help, and there’s certainly a chance he’ll produce offensively, considering who is on the mound for Boston.
Brayan Bello takes the ball, and Guerrero Jr. has raked against him in the past. He’s 11-for-27 lifetime with four doubles, two home runs, and 10 RBI. Vladdy has gone deep 23 times in 2025, and while he’s smacked only two bombs this month, he’s batting .341 in September.
Guerrero Jr. has 17 round-trippers off righties, and 12 at Rogers Centre.
HR Prop #3: Francisco Alvarez
We’ll finish off the day with New York Mets’ catcher Francisco Alvarez.
He isn’t typically a huge power threat, but he’s showing the pop in his bat lately. Although he’s left the yard just 11 times, the 23-year-old has smacked three homers across his last six games. That includes back-to-back contests with long balls.
He’ll be looking to make it a third consecutive game with a homer against the Chicago Cubs, and the trends play in his favor. It’s Shota Imanaga on the hill, and Alvarez is 1-for-2 lifetime against him. That one hit? It was a long ball.
Alvarez has taken lefties deep three times this season, and Imanaga has surrendered five home runs across his last two appearances.
Today’s HR parlay
Freddie Freeman home run
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home run
Francisco Alvarez home run
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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