Minnesota @ Toronto picks

Bo Bichette has cashed the Over in hits in three of his last four games and has six hits across his last two contests alone. Bichette finished 2-for-3 in a loss to the Miami Marlins on Sunday and was 4-for-6 on Saturday as well. He’s also hitting .321 at home and .308 against right-handed hurlers. Take Bichette to stay hot as Toronto returns to the Rogers Centre

Max Scherzer has given up Over 4.5 hits in three of his last four outings. They were all impressive starts; he just managed to pitch out of trouble at times. Scherzer has allowed 26 hits in 30 frames at home this year. 

Scherzer has been on fire since the calendar flipped to August. He’s 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 17 strikeouts, going at least six full innings in each of those starts.

Brooks Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 venue in the majors for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. The switch-hitting Brooks Lee will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Max Scherzer.. Brooks Lee has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 88.9-mph average to last season's 85.8-mph mark.

When it comes to his home run skill, Addison Barger ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Addison Barger is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 venue in the majors for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Given Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Addison Barger will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Royce Lewis has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.3-mph average to last year's 87.1-mph figure.. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.3°, Royce Lewis has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 29.4° mark over the past 14 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. In the past week, Ryan Jeffers's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as the league's 7th-best home run batter.. Byron Buxton is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Byron Buxton has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 17.2% seasonal rate to 24% in the last week's worth of games.

When estimating his batting average skill, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 ballpark in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage today.

Daulton Varsho is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 venue in the majors for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Daulton Varsho will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joe Ryan in today's game... and even better, Ryan has a large platoon split.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Daulton Varsho will hold that advantage today.

Alfonso Marquez projects as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be calling pitches in today's game.. The #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. With 6 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Max Scherzer encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.. Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (44% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #5 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Batting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, James Outman will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so James Outman stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.184) may lead us to conclude that James Outman has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .143 actual batting average.. Since the start of last season, James Outman's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 92nd percentile at 95.7 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daulton Varsho in the 3rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Rogers Centre has the 8th-highest fence height (on average) among all parks.. Typically, batters like Daulton Varsho who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Joe Ryan.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (39.7) provides evidence that Daulton Varsho has been lucky this year with his 52.9 actual HR/600.