Baltimore @ Houston props

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jacob Melton will hold that advantage today. Ranking in the 83rd percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.59 ft/sec this year, Jacob Melton is very quick.

Minute Maid Park profiles as the #21 ballpark in MLB for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Yainer Diaz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game. Yainer Diaz's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 90.4-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 81.4-mph in the last week's worth of games.

Minute Maid Park profiles as the #21 ballpark in MLB for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Jeremy Pena's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 88.2-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 86.2-mph over the past 7 days. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, going from 43.5% on the season to 25.8% over the past 14 days.

Minute Maid Park profiles as the #21 ballpark in MLB for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT). Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -11° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching. Hitting from the same side that Jason Alexander throws from, Jordan Westburg will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. Jordan Westburg hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game. Jackson Holliday will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jason Alexander today. Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Batting from the opposite that Jason Alexander throws from, Daniel Johnson will have the upper hand in today's game. Ranking in the 95th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.36 ft/sec this year, Daniel Johnson is very quick.

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Compared to his seasonal average of 17.7°, Dylan Carlson has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 32.2° angle in the last 7 days. Despite posting a .248 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dylan Carlson has experienced some negative variance given the .056 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .304.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Ryan Mountcastle has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 12.1% seasonal rate to 19% over the last 14 days. Ryan Mountcastle has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.4-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 94.3-mph. Ryan Mountcastle's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 49.1% on the season to 57.1% in the last two weeks.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.234) may lead us to conclude that Coby Mayo has suffered from bad luck this year with his .211 actual batting average.

Ryan Noda will have the handedness advantage against Jason Alexander today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.261) provides evidence that Ryan Noda has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .218 actual wOBA.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 18th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Jason Alexander throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand today. In the last 14 days, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 94.9-mph in recent games. By putting up a .350 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Gunnar Henderson grades out in the 84th percentile for hitting ability.

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Dylan Beavers will hold the platoon advantage against Jason Alexander in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs. Adley Rutschman has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph average. Adley Rutschman has been unlucky this year, notching a .308 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .025 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Mauricio Dubon will have the handedness advantage against Rico Garcia today. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Compared to last season, Mauricio Dubon has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 12.1% to 20% this season. Sporting a .276 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Mauricio Dubon finds himself in the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Rico Garcia throws from, Jose Altuve will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Jose Altuve will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Carlos Correa is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Carlos Correa will have the handedness advantage over Rico Garcia today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Carlos Correa will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Christian Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Rico Garcia throws from, Christian Walker will have an advantage in today's matchup. Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.2% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage today. Christian Walker has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11.5% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the last week.

Ramon Urias is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. In MLB, Minute Maid Park's LF fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Ramon Urias will have the handedness advantage over Rico Garcia today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Ramon Urias will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ramon Urias's launch angle recently (23.4° over the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 13.2° seasonal mark.

Chas McCormick will have the handedness advantage over Rico Garcia today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Chas McCormick will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Chas McCormick's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 97.2-mph over the course of the season to 103.7-mph of late. Chas McCormick's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (23.3°) is a considerable increase over his 15.6° figure last season. In the past 7 days, Chas McCormick's 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.4%.

Greg Allen has gone over 0.5 in 0 of his last 7 games.