Baltimore @ Houston picks

When it comes to his home run skill, Coby Mayo ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Coby Mayo has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jason Alexander is a pitch-to-contact type (19th percentile K%) — great news for Mayo.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Jackson Holliday is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Jackson Holliday will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jason Alexander today.. Jackson Holliday has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Ryan Mountcastle is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. Ryan Mountcastle has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 12.1% seasonal rate to 19% over the last 14 days.. Ryan Mountcastle has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.4-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 94.3-mph.. Ryan Mountcastle's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 49.1% on the season to 57.1% in the last two weeks.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jordan Westburg ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jordan Westburg is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Jordan Westburg has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 11.7% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the past 7 days.. Jordan Westburg has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 101.9-mph average over the past week to his seasonal mark of 93.7-mph.. In terms of power, Jordan Westburg grades out in the 82nd percentile, having averaged 27.6 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 18th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Batting from the opposite that Jason Alexander throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand today.. In the last 14 days, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.6-mph over the course of the season to 94.9-mph in recent games.. By putting up a .350 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Gunnar Henderson grades out in the 84th percentile for hitting ability.

When it comes to his home run ability, Christian Walker ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Rico Garcia throws from, Christian Walker will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.2% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs.. Adley Rutschman has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.8-mph average.. Adley Rutschman has been unlucky this year, notching a .308 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .333 — a .025 discrepancy.

Ryan Noda will have the handedness advantage against Jason Alexander today.. Ryan Noda has big-time HR ability (83rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (34.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jason Alexander doesn't generate many whiffs (1st percentile K%) — great news for Noda.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.261) provides evidence that Ryan Noda has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .218 actual wOBA.

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest fences in MLB — generally good for home runs.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jacob Melton will hold that advantage today.. Ranking in the 83rd percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.59 ft/sec this year, Jacob Melton is very quick.

Batting from the opposite that Jason Alexander throws from, Daniel Johnson will have the upper hand in today's game.. Ranking in the 95th percentile for Sprint Speed at 29.36 ft/sec this year, Daniel Johnson is very quick.