We're sitting at 5-4 SU on the week, and while tonight's slate is light — just three games starting after 6 PM — there’s still value to dig up.
Let’s zero in on the top angles for a quiet but profitable Thursday.
Here are my favorite MLB player props for August 28.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 28
Holmes o1.5 walks allowed (-120)
Phillies to be the highest scoring team on Thursday (+750)
Martin o15.5 outs recorded (+128)
Marlins vs. Mets
The angle: Holmes is another poor command pitcher who could be hitting a wall.
The move: Clay Holmes Over 1.5 walks allowed (-120 at DraftKings)
Clay Holmes finally worked into the 7th inning in his last start — his first time recording 18+ outs in 12 starts — but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’s efficient.
The New York Mets starter still burns through pitches with 55 walks over 137 innings, and that inefficiency has been even worse at Citi Field.
Although the Miami Marlins aren’t a walk machine, they’ve been league average in BB% over the last 30 days, and Holmes may be hitting a wall. After tossing just 63 innings in both 2023 and 2024, he's already more than doubled that in 2025.
Fatigue = command issues, and on a small slate, this Over makes too much sense. I’d play this to -130.
(Bonus: I’m also on Over 16.5 outs at plus money.)
Braves vs. Phillies
The angle: Quantrill could be in for a long game with bad pitching conditions.
The move: Phillies to be the highest scoring team on Thursday (+750 at DraftKings)
Not a pitcher prop — but easily my favorite way to fade Cal Quantrill today.
Quantrill was just picked up off waivers by the Atlanta Braves and threw a near-season-high 92 pitches in his debut, where he walked five and gave up three earned before leaving with a calf cramp. With the Braves still thin on arms, expect them to push him again.
That’s great news for the Philadelphia Phillies. Quantrill ranks in the bottom 5% of MLB in xERA and xBA, and Atlanta’s bullpen hasn’t helped — it’s been worth 0.0 WAR over the past 30 days.
Oh, and 11-mph winds are blowing out to left-center.
+750 for this upside? Easy bet to make. Let the Phils cook.
Yankees vs. White Sox
The angle: Martin could eclipse his pitch-count projections and has been great at home.
The move: Davis Martin Over 15.5 outs recorded (+128 at bet365)
Davis Martin isn’t flashy, but he’s been reliable at home, hitting 16+ outs in seven of 10 starts in his own park. The Chicago White Sox right-hander has averaged over 91 pitches per outing in his last 10 starts, and he is posting a 3.30 ERA over 57 innings at home.
Yes, the matchup with the New York Yankees is tough — and the mileage is adding up (he’s at a career-high 112 innings) — but +128 for 5 1/3 innings of work is strong value if he keeps that 90+ pitch leash.
Note: THE BAT is projecting just 14 outs on 84 pitches, so this line may improve later in the day. Worth monitoring.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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