Detroit @ Minnesota picks

This Twins lineup is hitting just .150 against Tarik Skubal across 60 at-bats. That includes 24 strikeouts. While Skubal hit a bit of a rough patch, he had cashed the Under 1.5 earned runs mark in back-to-back outings to end July.

There is some potential rain in Minnesota today that Kevin Roth has labeled as Orange/yellow and is projecting a possible delay. I don’t love betting on the weather, as things can always change, but there are other reasons why I like this Under. Tarik Skubal is not a 100-pitch pitcher and has hit triple digits just two times across 23 starts this year. THE BAT is projecting 95 pitches and 18.09 outs, and that’s not including the possible rain. Add in a road start, plus the Tigers are very comfortable in the division and should get the No.1 or 2 seed, and there is no need to push Skubal, who is coming off his shortest outing of the year — 4.2 innings vs. the Halos.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edouard Julien in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Target Field ranks as the #7 venue in baseball for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Out of every team playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Edouard Julien will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 10th-worst park in the game for strikeouts.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tarik Skubal in today's game.. Tarik Skubal struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his previous outing and compiled 2 Ks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as the majors's 7th-best home run hitter.. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #7 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Byron Buxton will hold the platoon advantage against Tarik Skubal in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The #7 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Ryan Jeffers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tarik Skubal in today's matchup.. Out of every team playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Royce Lewis is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. The #7 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Tarik Skubal throws from, Royce Lewis will have an advantage in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.

When estimating his home run skill, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. The #7 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Over the past week, Spencer Torkelson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.7-mph over the course of the season to 99.9-mph in recent games.. Spencer Torkelson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 17.6% to 26.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene as the 6th-best hitter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Riley Greene is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Target Field ranks as the #7 venue in baseball for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Riley Greene will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bailey Ober today.. The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Riley Greene stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edouard Julien in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Target Field ranks as the #7 venue in baseball for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Out of every team playing today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Edouard Julien will hold that advantage in today's game.. Edouard Julien has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 103-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 95.9-mph.

The #7 ballpark in the game for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Mickey Gasper will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Compared to his seasonal average of 20.9°, Mickey Gasper has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 58° figure in the past 7 days.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.238) implies that Mickey Gasper has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .195 actual wOBA.

Kody Clemens has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Target Field ranks as the #7 venue in baseball for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude among all parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Kody Clemens will hold that advantage in today's matchup.