Chicago @ Toronto picks

Tarik Skubal has been outstanding since the All-Star break, but there have been some cracks in his armor. In his last two starts, he’s allowed seven earned runs in 11 ⅔ IP, and allowed as many home runs — three — as he’d surrendered in his previous 11 starts combined. Bailey Ober has had a polar opposite season for the Minnesota Twins. His 5.16 ERA and 1.38 WHIP were helped by his strong outing last week against the Royals, where he allowed just one earned run over 6 IP. I’ll take the Over here with two shaky bullpens helping out the cause.

Max Scherzer’s gone Over this outs-recorded number in three straight, sporting a 2.84 ERA with 21 strikeouts over that stretch, averaging 19 outs per game. Moreover, the Jays have gotten the Cubs’ offense at the right time. The bats have been ice cold, as the team ranks 29th in OPS in August, sitting in the bottom five of most offensive metrics over this stretch.

Toronto walks at the second-highest rate to southpaws on the season while also boasting the third-best average and sixth-best wRC+. There are potentially seven guys in today’s lineup with a wRC+ of 100 or better vs. left-handed pitching this year, with 100 being league average. Boyd is also a low-pitch-count starter who is averaging just 87.5 pitches per start over his last 10 games. The Jays can run up a pitch count and do so even better vs. lefties. Buy this to -125.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 11th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 stadium in MLB for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.. Kyle Tucker will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 87th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 stadium in MLB for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage over Max Scherzer in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 stadium in the majors for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dansby Swanson hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Compared to last year, Dansby Swanson has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 43.8% to 49.4% this season.. In the last 14 days, Dansby Swanson's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.4%.

Carson Kelly is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 stadium in the majors for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.. Carson Kelly has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last year's 91.4-mph average.. Carson Kelly's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 45.7% on the season to 71.4% over the last 7 days.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 17th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 stadium in the majors for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. Seiya Suzuki has made significant strides with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last season to 19% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Ian Happ is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #3 stadium in MLB for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Max Scherzer.

When estimating his batting average skill, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 stadium in the majors for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will have the upper hand in today's game.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 17th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Rogers Centre projects as the #3 stadium in the majors for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. Seiya Suzuki has made significant strides with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last season to 19% this season.

Joey Loperfido's BABIP skill is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #3 stadium in MLB for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.. Joey Loperfido will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. In the last two weeks, Joey Loperfido's 29.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.8%.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 11th-best hitter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 stadium in MLB for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.. Kyle Tucker will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer in today's game.