Chicago @ Toronto picks

The Cubs are in a free fall right now, while the Jays are pushing hard for the No. 1 seed in the American League. They'll have the pitching edge tonight with Kevin Gausman taking on Cade Horton, and with the way the Cubs' bats have gone cold at the plate, Gausman should be dealing in this one. 

Kevin Gausman has allowed 17 bombs in 23 starts this season, and although Kyle Tucker hasn’t taken him deep, he’s 4-for-9 lifetime with a pair of doubles. Twelve of Tucker’s round-trippers have come against right-handed hurlers. 

Kevin Gausman's delivering 7.8 Ks per game over his last four starts, going Over his posted total in three of those outings, and I expect him to do it again tonight.

The Cubs' offense strikes out at a 26% clip against the splitter, Gausman’s calling card, and struck out nine times last night in the first game of the series. 

The #3 ballpark in the majors for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks.. Daulton Varsho will have the handedness advantage over Cade Horton in today's game.. Daulton Varsho will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Daulton Varsho has made significant strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.4% rate last season to 17.6% this season.

Carson Kelly is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. Rogers Centre profiles as the #3 ballpark in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks.. Carson Kelly has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.7-mph average to last season's 91.4-mph figure.. In the last 7 days, Carson Kelly's 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.7%.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 8th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in the majors for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks.. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage against Kevin Gausman today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the majors.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Rogers Centre profiles as the #3 ballpark in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Seiya Suzuki has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 11.5% rate last year to 19% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the best hitter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his batting average ability.. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Rogers Centre profiles as the #3 ballpark in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Michael Busch is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #3 ballpark in the majors for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks.. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Michael Busch will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Rogers Centre profiles as the #3 ballpark in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks.. Alejandro Kirk will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his home run ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in the majors for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #3 ballpark in the majors for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks.. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Ian Happ will get to bat from his good side against Kevin Gausman in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Michael Busch is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.. The #3 ballpark in the majors for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks.. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Michael Busch will have an edge today.