Boston @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 9th-worst field in the game for right-handed batting average. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Walker Buehler will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Altuve today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 9th-worst field in the game for right-handed batting average. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making weather conditions in this game -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Batting from the same side that Walker Buehler throws from, Jeremy Pena will be at a disadvantage today. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Trevor Story is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Posting a .332 BABIP this year, Trevor Story is ranked in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.6°, Ceddanne Rafaela has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 27.5° angle in the past week.

In the league, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Despite posting a .209 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Connor Wong has had bad variance on his side given the .087 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .296. In notching a .316 BABIP since the start of last season, Connor Wong grades out in the 82nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 15th-best hitter in the majors when assessing his BABIP skill. The Barrel% of Romy Gonzalez has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.5% last year to 15.8% this season. Romy Gonzalez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last year's 92.3-mph average. Checking in at the 94th percentile, Romy Gonzalez has put up a .370 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year. In notching a .297 batting average this year, Romy Gonzalez is ranked in the 93rd percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game. Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Batters such as Alex Bregman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. This season, Alex Bregman has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.1 mph compared to last year's 90.9 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Yainer Diaz will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. In the last week's worth of games, Yainer Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.6-mph over the course of the season to 102.8-mph recently. Despite posting a .296 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yainer Diaz has had bad variance on his side given the .033 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .329.

Carlos Narvaez's 91.4-mph average exit velocity is among the best in the majors this year: 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Hitting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have the upper hand in today's game. Jesus Sanchez has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage today.

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Victor Caratini will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Walker Buehler in today's game. Victor Caratini will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Victor Caratini's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, going from 45.2% on the season to 68.8% in the last two weeks' worth of games. Victor Caratini has compiled a .270 batting average this year, grading out in the 75th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Christian Walker ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Christian Walker will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Christian Walker has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.4% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Roman Anthony is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. Roman Anthony will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown in today's game. Roman Anthony has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Roman Anthony has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 11.5% seasonal rate to 18.5% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage in today's game. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Over the past 14 days, Jarren Duran's 59.4% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Carlos Correa is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. In the league, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Carlos Correa will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Carlos Correa has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 7.2% seasonal rate to 15.2% over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Wilyer Abreu tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Brown. Wilyer Abreu's launch angle this season (24°) is a significant increase over his 19° figure last season. Compared to his seasonal average of 24.1°, Wilyer Abreu has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 31° angle in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Masataka Yoshida has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 7.4% seasonal rate to 15.8% in the last two weeks.

Minute Maid Park has the smallest outfield in Major League Baseball — generally good for long-balls. Abraham Toro has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.5-mph average to last year's 89-mph average.

In the league, Minute Maid Park's left field dimensions are the shallowest. Ramon Urias will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Ramon Urias has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7% seasonal rate to 15.8% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Ramon Urias has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.2-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 89.3-mph figure. Ramon Urias's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, going from 13.5% on the season to 31.6% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Mauricio Dubon's batting average ability is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's game. Mauricio Dubon's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 12.1% to 20.1%. Based on Statcast metrics, Mauricio Dubon grades out in the 86th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .280. Posting a 1.76 K/BB rate this year, Mauricio Dubon has displayed impressive plate discipline, placing in the 78th percentile.