Philadelphia @ Texas picks

Edmundo Sosa's BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Over the last 14 days, Edmundo Sosa has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 5.5% to 15.4%. Grading out in the 87th percentile, Edmundo Sosa sits with a .323 BABIP since the start of last season.

Bryson Stott's batting average talent is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Bryson Stott will have an edge in today's matchup. Bryson Stott's launch angle of late (39° in the last week's worth of games) is a significant increase over his 15.5° seasonal mark. Compared to last season, Bryson Stott has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 16.2% to 20.7% this season. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.316) implies that Bryson Stott has experienced some negative variance this year with his .291 actual wOBA.

As it relates to his batting average talent, Trea Turner is projected as the 11th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trea Turner is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. Trea Turner has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.7-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.8-mph figure. Trea Turner's quickness has improved this year. His 29.56 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 30.25 ft/sec now. Trea Turner has notched a .274 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Max Kepler will have an advantage in today's game. Max Kepler has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 6.2% rate last season to 12% this year. In the past two weeks, Max Kepler has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 17.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.6°. Max Kepler's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 13.8% to 17.9%. Max Kepler has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .289 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .334 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Adolis Garcia will have the handedness advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Adolis Garcia will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Adolis Garcia has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph to 96.4-mph over the past 7 days.

Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Josh Smith will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. In the last week, Josh Smith's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.4% up to 11.1%. When it comes to plate discipline, Josh Smith's skill is quite strong, sporting a 1.8 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 78th percentile. Josh Smith has recorded a .273 batting average this year, checking in at the 78th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 7th-best batter in Major League Baseball. Corey Seager is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Corey Seager will hold that advantage in today's game. Corey Seager has been unlucky this year, compiling a .354 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .378 — a .024 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 91st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Nick Castellanos's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (17.5°) is significantly higher than his 13.9° figure last year. Nick Castellanos's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 49.7% on the season to 66.7% over the past 7 days. Posting a .273 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Nick Castellanos finds himself in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Wyatt Langford will have the handedness advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Wyatt Langford will hold that advantage in today's game.

Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Bryce Harper will have the upper hand in today's matchup. In the past two weeks, Bryce Harper's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.2-mph over the course of the season to 97.8-mph in recent games. Bryce Harper's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 13.3% to 19.4%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Over the past 14 days, Otto Kemp's 44.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21.1%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jake Burger ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Burger will have the handedness advantage over Cristopher Sanchez in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Jake Burger will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Sam Haggerty's BABIP skill is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Sam Haggerty is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Sam Haggerty will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Sam Haggerty will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Marcus Semien is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Marcus Semien will have the upper hand in today's game. Bats such as Marcus Semien with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. J.T. Realmuto's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 48.2% on the season to 60% over the last two weeks. Despite posting a .309 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky given the .021 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330. Placing in the 94th percentile, J.T. Realmuto sits with a .345 BABIP this year.

Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Ezequiel Duran will have the upper hand in today's game. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Ezequiel Duran will hold that advantage in today's game. Ezequiel Duran has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.7-mph average to last year's 89.8-mph average.

Josh Jung's BABIP talent is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Josh Jung is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. Josh Jung will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Josh Jung will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 4th-best hitter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP talent. Brandon Marsh will hold the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly today. Brandon Marsh has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 9.3% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last two weeks. Brandon Marsh has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.4-mph EV. Brandon Marsh's launch angle lately (16° over the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 11.9° seasonal figure.

Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Kyle Higashioka will have an advantage in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Kyle Higashioka are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez. Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Kyle Higashioka will hold that advantage today. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, going from 18.5% on the season to 35.7% in the past 14 days.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 14th-best hitter in the majors. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Kyle Schwarber has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 20.5% seasonal rate to 34.5% in the past 14 days. Kyle Schwarber has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100.9-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 95-mph mark.

Jonah Heim has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.