St. Louis @ San Diego picks

The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last six games while the Padres have won six in a row. Since the All-Star break, the Friars are fifth in the majors in batting average at .280 while the Cards are batting just .227. Despite playing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, the Padres still hit better at home. They should have success against Michael McGreevy who has a 4.91 ERA. The 25-year-old is coming off a great start but gets hit hard and has an xBA of .302, so expect regression. San Diego will send Randy Vasquez and his 3.65 ERA to the hill. Vasquez held the Cards to one hit in 4 2/3 innings in his previous start last Saturday. His analytics are worrying but it's hard to ignore his form and he has the best bullpen in the majors behind him. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Petco Park ranks as the #7 venue in the game for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Petco Park has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Jordan Walker has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.1-mph EV.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. Petco Park ranks as the #7 ballpark in MLB for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Petco Park has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 9th-best hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Petco Park ranks as the #7 venue in the game for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Petco Park has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Petco Park ranks as the #7 venue in the game for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks.. In the majors, Petco Park has the 6th-lowest average fence height.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Petco Park ranks as the #7 ballpark in MLB for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Petco Park has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge in today's game.

Petco Park ranks as the #7 venue in the game for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Petco Park has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Pedro Pages's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.6%.. Pedro Pages has been unlucky this year, putting up a .244 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .278 — a .034 deviation.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 9th-best hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Petco Park ranks as the #7 venue in the game for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Petco Park has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Petco Park ranks as the #7 venue in the game for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Petco Park has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Grading out in the 92nd percentile, Ivan Herrera has put up a .372 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Nolan Gorman as Major League Baseball's 19th-best home run hitter.. Petco Park ranks as the #7 ballpark in MLB for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Petco Park has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an advantage in today's game.. Nolan Gorman has strong power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (31.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez struggles to strike batters out (6th percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Petco Park ranks as the #7 venue in the game for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Petco Park has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Jordan Walker has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.1-mph EV.