Detroit @ Philadelphia picks
Citizens Bank Park
DET vs PHI Picks
MLB Picks
Total Home Runs


Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Hits, Runs, and RBIs


Ryan Gilbert
Betting Analyst
Realmuto had an especially strong month of July, batting .354 (28 for 79) with nine runs scored and 10 RBI in 19 games. He had at least 2 HRR in 13 of those contests. Despite batting right-handed, Realmuto has a much better average vs. RHP (.310) than vs. LHP (.172) this season, so he's in a good position to produce against Jack Flaherty and the Detroit Tigers. Realmuto has also risen up the lineup over the past few weeks, batting either cleanup or fifth behind the Phillies’ top bats.
Total RBIs

Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run ability, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Spencer Torkelson will have the handedness advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's game.. Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Spencer Torkelson tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.
Total RBIs

Max Kepler o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Citizens Bank Park has the 2nd-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers.. Max Kepler will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Flaherty in today's matchup.. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.. Max Kepler will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Max Kepler's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 13.8% to 17.2%.
Total RBIs

Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the 2nd-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers.. Kyle Schwarber will hold the platoon advantage against Jack Flaherty in today's game.. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
Total RBIs

Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Hitting from the opposite that Jack Flaherty throws from, Bryce Harper will have an advantage in today's game.. Bryce Harper has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the 2nd-smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers.. Kyle Schwarber will hold the platoon advantage against Jack Flaherty in today's game.. Among all the teams in action today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
Total Bases

Kyle Schwarber u1.5 Total Bases (-165)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The #8 stadium in the league for suppressing base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citizens Bank Park.. Built just 19 feet above sea level, Citizens Bank Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all parks, which often leads to lower offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 4th-strongest of the day for hurlers.. Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 46.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit higher than his 35.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Spencer Torkelson o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run ability, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Spencer Torkelson will have the handedness advantage over Ranger Suarez in today's game.. Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Spencer Torkelson tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Wenceel Perez o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-175)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Wenceel Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Wenceel Perez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 14.1% to 21.4%.
Total Bases

Bryce Harper o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Hitting from the opposite that Jack Flaherty throws from, Bryce Harper will have an advantage in today's game.. Bryce Harper has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Detroit Tigers.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Riley Greene o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+125)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene as the 6th-best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP talent.. Riley Greene is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.. Riley Greene has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense projects as the weakest out of all the teams in action today.. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.1°, Riley Greene has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 21.8° figure in the past week's worth of games.