Toronto @ Baltimore Picks & Props

Addison Barger has been pulled from the game early 12% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year. Addison Barger will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Addison Barger's launch angle of late (5.7° over the last 14 days) is a significant dropoff from his 12° seasonal mark. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Addison Barger's true offensive skill to be a .319, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .030 disparity between that mark and his actual .349 wOBA.

When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Nathan Lukes has been pulled from the game early 18% of the time. Nathan Lukes has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game. Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nathan Lukes today. Over the last two weeks, Nathan Lukes's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 87.2 mph to 82.9 mph. Nathan Lukes's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 44.8% on the season to 17.6% in the last 7 days.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 9.8°, Gunnar Henderson has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-2°) over the last two weeks. Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 14.1% to 10%.

Zach Eflin will hold the platoon advantage over George Springer in today's game. Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for George Springer in today's game. George Springer has been lucky this year, putting up a .383 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .350 — a .033 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in the majors for LHB base hits. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Bassitt today... and moreover, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Ernie Clement is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup. Zach Eflin will hold the platoon advantage against Ernie Clement in today's game. Today, Ernie Clement is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.2% rate (76th percentile). Ernie Clement will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. From last year to this one, Ernie Clement's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 18.8% to 14.2%.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #10 park in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Coby Mayo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Coby Mayo will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Coby Mayo's 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 12.5%.

Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Bo Bichette will have a tough matchup in today's game. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Bo Bichette today. Bo Bichette has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 9.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 2.9% over the last two weeks. Bo Bichette has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph dropping to 84.3-mph in the past week. Bo Bichette's launch angle in recent games (0.6° in the past 7 days) is considerably lower than his 9.2° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #10 park in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Ramon Laureano will hold that advantage in today's game. Ramon Laureano has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 12.3% seasonal rate to 35% over the last 7 days.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jordan Westburg ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jordan Westburg is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #10 park in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jordan Westburg will hold that advantage in today's game.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in the majors for LHB base hits. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ryan O'Hearn will have the handedness advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Bassitt has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Adley Rutschman is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in the majors for LHB base hits. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in the majors for LHB base hits. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jackson Holliday will have the handedness advantage against Chris Bassitt today... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split.

Joey Loperfido's BABIP talent is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in the majors for LHB base hits. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Joey Loperfido will have the handedness advantage against Zach Eflin in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in the majors for LHB base hits. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.6% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Batting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will not have the upper hand today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #10 park in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tyler O'Neill will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Tyler O'Neill has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 16.5% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Wagner in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in the majors for LHB base hits. Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Will Wagner will hold the platoon advantage over Zach Eflin in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 10th-best venue in the majors for LHB base hits. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tyler Heineman pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #10 park in the league for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jacob Stallings has been unlucky this year, putting up a .171 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .265 — a .094 discrepancy. Jacob Stallings ranks in the 87th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (18.1% rate since the start of last season).

Myles Straw has gone over 0.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.