We have a full night of baseball ahead of us and plenty of offense in the forecast, with 11 games featuring totals of 8.5 or higher.
We’re focusing most of our attention on those games with three MLB player props for Monday, July 28.
Best MLB player props today
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Freeman o1.5 H+R+R (-141) -
Barger o1.5 TB (-110) -
Altuve o1.5 H+R+R (-149)
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Our 3 best MLB player props for Monday, July 28
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-141 at Caesars)
Freddie Freeman hasn’t been as prolific offensively of late as he was earlier in the season, but he’s in a good spot to change that Monday night.
Freeman will face off against the extremely talented but volatile Chase Burns, who is still finding his way at the major league level. Burns has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters, giving up a .298 average, .255 ISO, and 2.5 homers per nine innings.
He throws the fastball nearly 60% of the time against lefties. Freeman has torched fastballs this season, hitting .296 while posting the lowest whiff rate of any pitch in Burns’ arsenal.
Freeman has also performed much better vs. right-handed pitching all year long. He’s managed a remarkable .314 average against righties compared to just .237 vs. lefties. The splits are working in his favor from both sides in this matchup.
As a cherry on top, Freeman has covered this line in 60% of Los Angeles’ victories. That is worth noting given the Dodgers are trading as -160 favorites against the Reds.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio, SportsNet LA
Addison Barger Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at Caesars)
Addison Barger enters play in fine form at the dish. He’s recorded multiple bases in six of his last nine games, averaging just over two per night in that span.
He is hot and should remain so against Zach Eflin and the Orioles. Barger is hitting .281 on the year against righties with 33 of 64 hits coming by way of double or home run. He consistently hits for a ton of power.
That has shown up against Eflin himself. Barger has only two at-bats against Eflin to date but took him yard on one of them.
Eflin has an expansive pitch arsenal but relies on cutters most heavily when facing right-handed bats. That’s good news for Barger, who is hitting .278 with a .313 ISO against that pitch this season.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, MASN
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-149 at Caesars)
Jose Altuve has piled up the H+R+R of late, averaging 3.0 over his last 20 games. He’s in a great spot to build on that success against Brad Lord and the Nationals.
We’ll start with an advantageous matchup against Lord. He throws fastballs nearly 50% of the time against right-handed bats, splitting up sliders and sinkers nearly evenly beyond that.
Altuve owns a .287 average and .263 ISO against the fastball, best of the bunch. Worried Lord will get away from that and attack Altuve more so with the other pitches? Fear not!
He is hitting .280 against sliders and .265 against sinkers. Altuve hasn’t posted the same kind of power numbers against those pitches but he’s hit for strong averages while posting even better whiff rates.
There is no easy way for Lord to get Altuve out and, upon exiting the game, Altuve will have the luxury of facing the league’s worst bullpen in terms of xFIP.
Altuve’s clear rate for H+R+R is also 13% higher on home soil in the hitter-friendly environment that is Daikin Park.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Home Network, MASN2
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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