Cleveland @ Kansas City Picks & Props

Tanner Bibee will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bobby Witt Jr. in today's game. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's deepest RF fences today. In the past 7 days, Bobby Witt Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.8% down to 5.6%. Bobby Witt Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined of late, going from 48.8% on the season to 27.8% over the past week. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bobby Witt Jr.'s true offensive ability to be a .374, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .025 disparity between that mark and his actual .349 wOBA.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 4th-deepest LF fences today. Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Ramirez in today's game. Jose Ramirez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph dropping to 85.2-mph in the last 7 days. Jose Ramirez's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, falling from 42.4% on the season to 35% over the past two weeks. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jose Ramirez's true offensive talent to be a .351, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .024 gap between that mark and his actual .375 wOBA.

In today's matchup, Angel Martinez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.3% rate (98th percentile). Angel Martinez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Angel Martinez has been lucky this year, putting up a .298 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .296 — a .002 deviation. With a .284 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Angel Martinez is ranked in the 14th percentile for offensive ability. Angel Martinez has exhibited bad plate discipline this year, checking in at the 4th percentile with a 5.8 K/BB rate.

Hitting from the same side that Kris Bubic throws from, Steven Kwan will be in a tough position in today's game. Steven Kwan has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-deepest LF fences today. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Steven Kwan in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Steven Kwan has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability. Steven Kwan has been lucky this year, putting up a .333 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .026 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Gabriel Arias has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Gabriel Arias will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kris Bubic in today's game. Compared to last year, Gabriel Arias has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 11.9% to 16.5% this season. This year, Gabriel Arias's flyball exit velocity (an advanced standard to measure power) is in the 94th percentile at 96.6 mph.

Over the last two weeks, Daniel Schneemann's 60% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.6%.

Freddy Fermin will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Over the past week, Freddy Fermin's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.5% up to 12.5%. Freddy Fermin's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, rising from 41.5% on the season to 75% in the past week's worth of games.

Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Bibee throws from, Kyle Isbel will have an advantage today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Kyle Isbel will hold that advantage today.

Austin Hedges will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kris Bubic today. Austin Hedges has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last year's 88.4-mph EV. Austin Hedges's 24.5° launch angle (a reliable stat to assess a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the highest in the game: 97th percentile.

Brayan Rocchio's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 87.5-mph now compared to just 84.5-mph then. Brayan Rocchio's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 37.7% to 47.6%. Over the past 14 days, Brayan Rocchio's 58.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.261) suggests that Brayan Rocchio has experienced some negative variance this year with his .200 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Jonathan India is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Jonathan India will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Jonathan India's launch angle lately (21.8° over the last 7 days) is a considerable increase over his 16.9° seasonal angle. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jonathan India has been unlucky this year. His .298 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .326.

Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Tanner Bibee throws from, Vinnie Pasquantino will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Vinnie Pasquantino will hold that advantage in today's game. Vinnie Pasquantino has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 101.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal mark of 92.9-mph. Vinnie Pasquantino's maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to evaluate power) has been 114.4 mph this year, grading out in the 87th percentile.

Jac Caglianone is penciled in 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Batting from the opposite that Tanner Bibee throws from, Jac Caglianone will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Jac Caglianone will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jac Caglianone has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 12.2% seasonal rate to 18.8% over the last week. Jac Caglianone has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 90-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Maikel Garcia is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Maikel Garcia will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Maikel Garcia's launch angle this season (10°) is a significant increase over his 6.2° figure last season. Maikel Garcia has recorded a .287 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

MJ Melendez will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Bibee in today's game. MJ Melendez will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. MJ Melendez's launch angle this year (23.3°) is considerably better than his 14.4° angle last season. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, MJ Melendez has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .279 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .305. Since the start of last season, MJ Melendez has an average exit velocity of 91 mph, which ranks among the best in the majors at the 85th percentile.

Carlos Santana is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Carlos Santana will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Kris Bubic in today's matchup. Carlos Santana's launch angle in recent games (25.5° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 17.4° seasonal figure. Posting a 1.61 K/BB rate this year, Carlos Santana has shown favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 84th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Johnathan Rodriguez in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. The #8 field in baseball for boosting BABIP to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation among all parks. High elevation often leads to better offense. Hitting from the opposite that Kris Bubic throws from, Johnathan Rodriguez will have an edge today.

David Fry is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today. David Fry will hold the platoon advantage against Kris Bubic in today's game. David Fry has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 93.9-mph. David Fry's launch angle this year (25.1°) is significantly better than his 19.4° angle last year.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Salvador Perez ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Salvador Perez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Salvador Perez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. In the last week, Salvador Perez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.8% up to 26.1%. Salvador Perez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 92.9-mph in the past week's worth of games.