Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati props

Elly De La Cruz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.9% seasonal rate has dropped to 4.5% over the past two weeks. Elly De La Cruz's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 94.8-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 79.4-mph in the last 14 days. Elly De La Cruz's launch angle lately (0.8° in the past 14 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 6.9° seasonal angle. Elly De La Cruz has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .356 mark is quite a bit higher than his .326 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jonathan Aranda will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. In the past week, Jonathan Aranda's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 94.1 mph to 79.6 mph. As it relates to his batting average, Jonathan Aranda has had some very good luck this year. His .318 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .279.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #8 ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. Danny Jansen's launch angle this year (24.9°) is a considerable increase over his 21.6° mark last season.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #8 ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Jose Caballero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. In comparison to his 83.5-mph average last year, Jose Caballero's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 85.8 mph.

Nick Martinez will hold the platoon advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's game. Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Over the last two weeks, Yandy Diaz's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-4.2°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 6.5°.

Austin Hays is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #8 ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Austin Hays pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Austin Hays will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #8 ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today.

Jake Mangum's BABIP skill is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best stadium in the game for LHB batting average. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Jake Mangum has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Martinez throws from, Junior Caminero will be in a tough position in today's game. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Junior Caminero today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.316) provides evidence that Junior Caminero has been very fortunate this year with his .348 actual wOBA. By putting up a 3.46 K/BB rate this year, Junior Caminero has shown weak plate discipline, ranking in the 25th percentile. Junior Caminero has notched a .262 BABIP this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.

Chandler Simpson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. This year, Chandler Simpson's 0% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 0th percentile among his peers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best stadium in the game for LHB batting average. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Taylor Walls has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today. Compared to last year, Taylor Walls has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.8% to 19.8% this season.

Jake Fraley is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best stadium in the game for LHB batting average. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Jake Fraley will have an edge in today's matchup. Jake Fraley pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Matt McLain is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #8 ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Matt McLain has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best stadium in the game for LHB batting average. The 8th-shallowest RF fences among all stadiums are found in Great American Ball Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Will Benson will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Will Benson will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

TJ Friedl is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best stadium in the game for LHB batting average. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. TJ Friedl will hold the platoon advantage over Zack Littell today. TJ Friedl pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Noelvi Marte's batting average skill is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Great American Ball Park ranks as the #8 ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF dimensions among all parks. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Noelvi Marte will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Great American Ball Park ranks as the #8 ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Tyler Stephenson has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Tyler Stephenson will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Gavin Lux is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best stadium in the game for LHB batting average. The 8th-shallowest RF fences among all stadiums are found in Great American Ball Park. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #8 ballpark in MLB for RHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Spencer Steer will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Ha-Seong Kim has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.