Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati picks
Great American Ball Park
TB vs CIN Picks
MLB Picks
Total RBIs

Christopher Morel o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Christopher Morel as the majors's 20th-best home run hitter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams today.
Total RBIs

Danny Jansen o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.. Danny Jansen's launch angle this year (24.9°) is a considerable increase over his 21.6° mark last season.
Total RBIs

Tyler Stephenson o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.. Tyler Stephenson has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Tyler Stephenson will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs

Spencer Steer o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.. Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Spencer Steer will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Noelvi Marte o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Noelvi Marte's batting average skill is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF dimensions among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Noelvi Marte will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Matt McLain o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Matt McLain is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.. Matt McLain has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
Total Bases

Christopher Morel o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Christopher Morel as the majors's 20th-best home run hitter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Christopher Morel o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Christopher Morel as the majors's 20th-best home run hitter.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.. Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.
Outs Recorded

Zack Littell u17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Projection 15.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Zack Littell is projected to throw 83 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least on the slate.. Todd Tichenor grades out as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is likely to be calling pitches in this game.. Great American Ball Park grades out as the #1 field in the majors for home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF dimensions among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Danny Jansen o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+105)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best field in the league for run-scoring.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°.. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.. Danny Jansen's launch angle this year (24.9°) is a considerable increase over his 21.6° mark last season.