t’s a marquee matchup and a crucial series as the Houston Astros host the New York Yankees.
The two teams clashed earlier this season, with Houston taking two of three. But this time, New York is out for redemption and we like their chances to start strong in Game 1.
My Yankees vs. Astros predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet Tuesday, September 2.
Yankees vs Astros prediction
Yankees vs Astros best bet: Yankees moneyline (-115)
Tonight features a very clear contrast in starting pitchers and the direction they are going to end the season. It’s the chief reason why I’m taking the surging New York Yankees to get the win tonight as my best bet.
The calling card of this group has been losing to playoff teams and thumping bad teams. I think the tide turns a bit in this series overall, including this opener.
Framber Valdez will take the mound for the Houston Astros, and he just hasn’t been the Framber we’ve grown accustomed to seeing, especially at the end of the season. His 5.64 ERA in August was troubling, and it was particularly concerning given that the expected metrics behind those performances agreed with the reality of them.
To put that in perspective, the last three Augusts of Valdez’s career have had an average ERA of right around 2. It’s a big concern for the Astros in macro, but in the micro, this Yankees offense is well positioned to exploit some of the hard-hit issues he has struggled with.
On the other side, after a mid-season slump, Max Fried is starting to turn it around. He’s posted back-to-back starts allowing one earned run or fewer for the first time since mid-May. It came against a variety of competition, but one was against the Boston Red Sox, who have a similar swing profile as the Astros.
The Yankees hold a few key matchup advantages in this one, but given the familiarity between the two sides, those edges are somewhat negated. However, the current form of the two pitchers, coupled with that, points squarely in the direction of the Yankees.
Yankees vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Against a pitcher like Valdez, the point of attack is very straightforward.
We’re looking for hitters who avoid the ground ball and hit the sinker well.
Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton have the two lowest ground ball rates among Yankees players while also ranking in the top five among Yankees in hard-hit rate against the sinker.
That makes this same-game parlay pick an easy one.
Yankees vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: New York -120 | Houston +100
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+145) | HOU +1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Astros trend
The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 91 games (+16.35 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.
How to watch Yankees vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Tuesday, September 2, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (14-5, 3.06 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Framber Valdez (12-7, 3.18 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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