San Diego @ St. Louis picks

Across three starts, Darvish has a 6.01 ERA. Although he’s yet to give up a homer in 13 1/3 innings of work, Darvish has been lit up by Arenado. The Gold Glover is 9-for-23 lifetime, and three of those hits have left the yard.

Machado continues to rake, hitting .285 with 18 homers and 61 RBI. He already has five long balls in July. Machado has made Sonny Gray’s life a nightmare in the past, going 11-for-32 with a pair of bombs.

Through three starts, the veteran owns a 0-2 record and 6.08 ERA, with opponents hitting .260. Darvish has allowed Over 2.5 earned runs in back-to-back outings, surrendering three earned to the Nationals last time out. There’s no question that Darvish still has quality stuff, but he’s taking some time to get his feet under him. He’ll come up against a solid St. Louis Cardinals lineup tonight, who are hitting .303 against him lifetime across 66 at-bats.

Sonny Gray is coming off his worst start of the season giving up nine runs with just 66 pitches thrown over 10 outs. It marks the third straight start where he has failed to get more than 15 outs and the fifth time across his last seven starts. 
The 94-degree temperature is not going to help him vs. a low K% team in the Padres. Busch Stadium might be the toughest place to pitch today, considering the heat and humidity. At the end of the day, Gray is just not a pitcher who gets a long leash and 17.5 in bad conditions is always a good look to the Under. Over his last 13 starts, he has thrown more than 90 pitches just once and gone 85 or fewer in seven of them.  

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in the game.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 94°.. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°.. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Jackson Merrill is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 94°.. Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 94°.. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Ivan Herrera's batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°.. Extreme flyball hitters like Ivan Herrera are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Yu Darvish.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 94°.. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Alec Burleson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°.. Hitting from the opposite that Yu Darvish throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand today.

Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 94°.. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Martin Maldonado ranks in the 80th percentile with a 17.1° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in the game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in the game.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.