San Diego @ St. Louis Picks & Props

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Martin Maldonado ranks in the 80th percentile with a 17.2° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup. Jake Cronenworth's speed has gotten better this season. His 27.69 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.18 ft/sec now. In terms of plate discipline, Jake Cronenworth's skill is quite good, posting a 1.61 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 83rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Hitting from the opposite that Yu Darvish throws from, Brendan Donovan will have the upper hand today. Brendan Donovan will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jordan Walker will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Jordan Walker has been unlucky this year, compiling a .265 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .042 difference.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last year's 90.8-mph EV. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Gavin Sheets has suffered from bad luck this year. His .322 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .345.

Luis Arraez has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-deepest LF fences today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of every team today. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today's game. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.9-mph EV last year has fallen to 85.8-mph. Utilizing Statcast data, Luis Arraez grades out in the 24th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .297.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Manny Machado ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. This season, Manny Machado has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.8 mph compared to last year's 93.4 mph mark.

Batting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of every team today. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. in today's game. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 48.8% to 40.9%.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Batting from the opposite that Yu Darvish throws from, Victor Scott II will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Victor Scott II will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Victor Scott II grades out in the 75th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (17.3% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Jackson Merrill is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's matchup. Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 42% to 47.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Nolan Arenado has exhibited good plate discipline this year, checking in at the 87th percentile with a 1.49 K/BB rate.

Ivan Herrera's batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Extreme flyball hitters like Ivan Herrera are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Yu Darvish. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage today. Despite posting a .253 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pedro Pages has had bad variance on his side given the .027 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .280.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 79th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Masyn Winn will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Masyn Winn's launch angle this season (16.3°) is significantly higher than his 13° figure last year.

Alec Burleson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Hitting from the opposite that Yu Darvish throws from, Alec Burleson will have the upper hand today. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Bryce Johnson has had some very poor luck with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .274 figure is quite a bit lower than his .297 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Bryce Johnson is notably athletic, checking in at the 77th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.32 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate at 93°. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game.