Today’s MLB player props analysis will focus on a pair of third basemen in Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado.
I’ll finish off my home run picks for Thursday, July 24 with Yainer Diaz.
Best MLB home run props today
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Arenado (+600) -
Machado (+400) -
Diaz (+500) - 💲 +16700 parlay💲
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HR picks for July 24
Nolan Arenado (+600 at DraftKings)
Nolan Arenado isn’t having the greatest offensive season, batting just .241 with 10 home runs and 43 RBI. We usually see a lot more power out of the veteran, but he could be having some fun tonight as the St. Louis Cardinals open up a series with the San Diego Padres.
The Padres send Yu Darvish to the mound, and he has struggled since making his season debut at the beginning of the month. Across three starts, Darvish has a 6.01 ERA.
Although he’s yet to give up a homer in 13 1/3 innings of work, Darvish has been lit up by Arenado.
The Gold Glover is 9-for-23 lifetime, and three of those hits have left the yard. Arenado has done most of his power damage against right-handers, too, slugging eight bombs.
He’s also gone deep seven times at home, and the Cards will host the Padres in this four-game set.
Manny Machado (+400 at DraftKings)
Arenado isn’t the only third baseman in this matchup who could be in for a big evening.
Manny Machado continues to rake, hitting .285 with 18 homers and 61 RBI. He already has five long balls in July as well.
Machado has made Sonny Gray’s life a nightmare in the past, going 11-for-32 with a pair of bombs.
Gray has allowed 12 homers in 20 starts and just gave up two long balls in his last outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks, where he got tagged for eight earned runs. Machado has eight homers off right-handed hurlers and does tend to hit better versus righties overall, batting .295.
He also went deep twice last season in just 29 at-bats against the Cards. Machado is always a threat to put one in the bleachers, and he may just continue this success against Gray.
Yainer Diaz (+500 at DraftKings)
With Yordan Alvarez missing substantial time due to injury, the Houston Astros have needed others to step up. Yainer Diaz has been one of those players.
The Dominican is batting .246 with 13 home runs and 39 RBI this season. He’ll be up against a home run-prone pitcher tonight as well in Athletics starter Luis Severino.
Severino owns an ERA over 5.00 and he’s given up 13 bombs in 21 starts in 2025. Diaz has an impressive track record versus the righty, going 4-for-10 with two home runs. Severino has surrendered 11 homers during night games, and this one takes place in the evening.
Diaz has eight bombs off right-handed pitchers and he comes into this contest red-hot, having gone 5-for-10 across his last two appearances. That includes a 3-for-5 day on Wednesday where Diaz smacked a pair of doubles.
Today’s HR parlay
Nolan Arenado home run
Manny Machado home run
Yainer Diaz home run
Today’s most popular HR bets
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Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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