The San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals begin a four-game set tonight at Busch Stadium that will run through the weekend.
Yu Darvish has struggled since making his season debut, and I’ll explain in my Padres vs. Cardinals predictions why I expect that trend to continue tonight.
Padres vs Cardinals prediction
My Padres vs Cardinals best bet: Yu Darvish Over 2.5 earned runs (+125 at BET99)
Yu Darvish returned from the IL earlier this month, but he hasn’t had a lot of success so far. Through three starts, the veteran owns a 0-2 record and 6.08 ERA, with opponents hitting .260. Darvish has allowed Over 2.5 earned runs in back-to-back outings, surrendering three earned to the Nationals last time out.
There’s no question that Darvish still has quality stuff, but he’s taking some time to get his feet under him. He’ll come up against a solid St. Louis Cardinals lineup tonight, who are hitting .303 against him lifetime across 66 at-bats.
Yes, 23 of those at-bats are from Nolan Arenado, but despite the small sample size from other hitters throughout the lineup, there’s still a track record of success. They’ve also slugged four homers off Darvish, with three coming off the bat of Arenado. St. Louis just dropped two of three to the lowly Rockies and will be motivated to bounce back at home.
Padres vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Yu Darvish Over 2.5 earned runs
Nolan Arenado hit a home run
Manny Machado Over 0.5 hits
As I previously mentioned, Arenado has torn the cover off the baseball against Darvish. He’s 9-for-23 lifetime with three bombs and nine RBI.
Hopping over to the other side, San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado has also dominated Cardinals starter Sonny Gray. He’s 11-for-32 with two doubles and a pair of home runs. Machado is having a nice season overall, hitting .285 with 18 long balls and 61 RBI.
He’s cashed the Over on hits twice in his last four contests and finished the series finale against the Marlins on Wednesday 2-4 with a double. Machado is also hitting .295 off right-handed hurlers compared to .261 against lefties.
Padres vs Cardinals odds
Padres vs Cardinals live odds
Padres vs Cardinals opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +120 | St. Louis -1409
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-170) | St. Louis -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Padres vs Cardinals trend
The Padres have cashed the Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+14.65 units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Padres vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Thursday, 7-24-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | PADRES.tv, FanDuel Sports Network-Midwest |
| Padres starting pitcher | Yu Darvish (0-2, 6.08 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (9-4, 4.04 ERA) |
Padres vs Cardinals latest injuries
Padres vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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