Boston @ Philadelphia picks

It's tough to go against Cristopher Sanchez in this spot. He's on pace for career highs in wins, strikeouts, and ERA and gets to face a Boston side that has put up two or fewer runs in three of the last four. Sanchez has given up just seven runs across his last four home starts and has a WHIP just a shade north of one at home. He's been lights out all season long, not giving up more than two runs since May 19 at Coors vs. the Rockies. 

Sanchez was one of the biggest All-Star snubs this year, missing the game despite a 2.50 ERA and a 2.99 xERA in 115 innings. He's been red-hot since the beginning of June, pitching to a 1.63 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP in his last eight starts. The Red Sox have a strong lineup but are significantly less productive on the road where their OPS drops to .709. They've also struggled to generate offense coming out of the All-Star break, being held to two or fewer runs in three of their last four games. Sanchez has logged at least 21 outs in six of his last seven starts and Philadelphia's bullpen could be fatigued after a heavy workload over the last few days.

Schwarber is more prolific against left-handed pitchers but he does have something working in his favor here: the fastball. Fitts throws it nearly 50% of the time vs. left-handed bats. Schwarber hasn’t hit for average against it but he’s sporting a .352 wOBA and .273 ISO against righties throwing the fastball. Schwarber has also been much more productive at home, clearing this line in 66% of his games.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Alex Bregman will have an advantage in today's game.. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 82nd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Trevor Story is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Trevor Story will have the upper hand in today's game.. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and J.T. Realmuto will hold that advantage today.. In the past week's worth of games, J.T. Realmuto's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.1% up to 33.3%.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Hitting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Bryce Harper will have an advantage today.. Bryce Harper has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Bryce Harper will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Romy Gonzalez will have an edge in today's matchup.. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as MLB's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers.. Batting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as MLB's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers.. Batting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as MLB's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Citizens Bank Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for homers.. Batting from the opposite that Richard Fitts throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Schwarber will hold that advantage in today's game.

Bryson Stott's batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Richard Fitts in today's game.. Bryson Stott has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Bryson Stott will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.. Bryson Stott has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 93-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 88.7-mph.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Alex Bregman will have an advantage in today's game.. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.