We suffered a bit of a setback to start the week, going 1-2 with our MLB player props. Still, we’re on a 9-3 run over the last four slates.
Let’s take a look at a few bats that pop off the page as we look to get back on track with our MLB bets for Tuesday, July 22.
Best MLB player props today
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Schwarber o1.5 H+R+R (-125) -
Alonso o1.5 TB (+100) -
Caminero o1.5 H+R+R (-140)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Tuesday, July 22
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-125 at Caesars)
Kyle Schwarber had a quiet night in Philadelphia’s series opener against Boston, but he’s in a good spot to bounce back tonight.
Red Sox starter Richard Fitts has gone through some ups and downs this season and struggles to limit the longball. He’s conceded an average of 1.9 homers per nine innings thus far.
While he has done a better job in three starts since re-entering the rotation, Fitts has allowed 11 hits over 12 innings of work in that span. His starts also came against the Rockies, Angels, and Reds — not the most difficult schedule.
Fitts’ struggles to limit power should be more problematic against Schwarber and the Phillies. Schwarber is more prolific against left-handed pitchers but he does have something working in his favor here: the fastball.
Fitts throws it nearly 50% of the time vs. left-handed bats. Schwarber hasn’t hit for average against it but he’s sporting a .352 wOBA and .273 ISO against righties throwing the fastball. He is showing a ton of power.
Schwarber has also been much more productive at home, clearing this line in 66% of his games. That’s a sizable difference from his 52% success rate on the road.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)
Kyle Hendricks has not had a good season for the Angels. He has won only five of 18 starts to date and his ERA is hovering around 5.00.
Hendricks has struggled mightily with right-handed bats, even more so when it comes to limiting power. He has allowed 2.2 homers per nine innings against righties and an alarmingly high ISO of .241.
That should be music to the ears of Pete Alonso, who is hitting .300 with a .253 ISO against right-handed arms.
Hendricks’ go-to pitches vs. righties are the sinker and changeup. That also plays into the hands of Alonso, who owns a .426 wOBA against sinkers and a .399 wOBA vs. the change.
Don’t be surprised if he clears this line with one swing of the bat.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network West, SNY
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-140 at BetMGM)
The Rays are currently playing in one of the league’s most hitter-friendly ballparks, and that is quite evident when looking at Junior Caminero’s splits.
The breakout star has recorded multiple H+R+R in 58% of his home games compared to 40% on the road, good for a massive 18% swing.
Caminero has unsurprisingly seen another big spike in wins, clearing this H+R+R line in 71% of home victories this season.
Tampa Bay is heavily favored against Davis Martin and the Chicago White Sox, and for good reason. Martin will be making his first major league start in nearly six weeks and the White Sox’ bullpen ranks 29th in xFIP this season.
Caminero should have an advantageous matchup every time he steps up to the plate. The production should follow.
- Time: 7:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network Sun, CHSN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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