Baltimore @ Tampa Bay props

Typically, hitters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Trevor Rogers. Yandy Diaz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 10.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.

The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Taylor Walls will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Trevor Rogers today. Taylor Walls has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Taylor Walls will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Taylor Walls has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 29.6° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.9°.

The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Danny Jansen will have the upper hand today. Hitters such as Danny Jansen with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Trevor Rogers who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Danny Jansen has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last season's 90.5-mph average.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Chandler Simpson is projected as the 13th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Chandler Simpson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, Chandler Simpson is in the 99th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .308.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Jackson Holliday will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Jackson Holliday tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have the upper hand in today's game. Ryan O'Hearn has made big gains with his Barrel% of late, upping his 8.7% seasonal rate to 18.8% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Pepiot today.

Ha-seong Kim has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Ha-seong Kim will have the upper hand in today's game. Ha-seong Kim will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Ha-seong Kim has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .234 figure is a fair amount lower than his .255 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tyler O'Neill's launch angle this season (25.8°) is quite a bit higher than his 20° figure last season. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.308) may lead us to conclude that Tyler O'Neill has had some very poor luck this year with his .260 actual wOBA. Tyler O'Neill's 16.6% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

Ramon Laureano's BABIP skill is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ramon Laureano has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 101.2-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 94.8-mph. Ramon Laureano's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (10.7° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is a considerable dropoff from his 16.6° seasonal angle.

The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Jose Caballero will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jose Caballero will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 43.9% to 50.7%.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jonathan Aranda pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.9% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage today.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 19th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have the upper hand today. Over the last 14 days, Gunnar Henderson has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 8.3% to 13.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jordan Westburg is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jordan Westburg has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 94.1-mph in the past two weeks. Jordan Westburg's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, going from 43.2% on the season to 55% in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Junior Caminero will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Christopher Morel will have the handedness advantage against Trevor Rogers today. Christopher Morel will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Cedric Mullins will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today's game. Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (37.2% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Cedric Mullins's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 89.1-mph now compared to just 87.1-mph then.

The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jacob Stallings has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Jacob Stallings's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 17.9% to 21.1%. Despite posting a .177 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jacob Stallings has had bad variance on his side given the .089 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .266.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 93°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jake Mangum has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Posting a .304 batting average this year, Jake Mangum has performed in the 97th percentile.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.