Baltimore @ Tampa Bay props

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Extreme groundball hitters like Coby Mayo tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley. Coby Mayo has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 27.65 ft/sec to 28.34 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric). Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.286) may lead us to conclude that Coby Mayo has had some very poor luck this year with his .250 actual wOBA.

Hitting from the same side that Charlie Morton throws from, Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage today. Yandy Diaz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 10.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 7 days. Yandy Diaz's launch angle of late (-4.5° in the last week's worth of games) is significantly lower than his 5.8° seasonal angle.

In today's game, Chandler Simpson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.8% rate (96th percentile). This year, Chandler Simpson's 0% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 0th percentile among his peers.

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's matchup. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like Cedric Mullins tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley. Cedric Mullins has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89.1-mph average to last year's 87.1-mph EV.

Ryan O'Hearn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have an edge in today's game. Ryan O'Hearn has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 8.8% seasonal rate to 15.8% over the past 14 days.

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Danny Jansen has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 8.2% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the past 14 days. Danny Jansen's launch angle this season (24.6°) is considerably better than his 21.6° angle last season. Over the last two weeks, Danny Jansen's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 40.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Colton Cowser will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game. Colton Cowser's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 48% on the season to 61.9% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tyler O'Neill's launch angle this year (25.8°) is considerably higher than his 20° angle last year. Tyler O'Neill's launch angle recently (36.9° over the last two weeks) is considerably higher than his 25.8° seasonal angle. Tyler O'Neill has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .259 mark is a good deal lower than his .306 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Extreme groundball hitters like Junior Caminero are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Charlie Morton. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Ramon Laureano is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Over the past 14 days, Ramon Laureano's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.6-mph over the course of the season to 97.2-mph of late. Grading out in the 90th percentile, Ramon Laureano has notched a .367 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Jordan Westburg is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jordan Westburg has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 94.1-mph in the past 14 days. Compared to his seasonal average of 13°, Jordan Westburg has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 18.3° angle in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ha-seong Kim will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Ha-seong Kim has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .233 rate is considerably lower than his .255 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Ha-seong Kim has displayed strong plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile with a 1.43 K/BB rate.

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Taylor Walls will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Taylor Walls has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 90.8-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 88.8-mph. In the past two weeks, Taylor Walls has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 27.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.9°. Compared to last year, Taylor Walls has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.8% to 20.6% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Taj Bradley throws from, Jackson Holliday will have an advantage in today's game. Checking in at the 80th percentile, Jackson Holliday has posted a .325 BABIP this year.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Charlie Morton throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand today. Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage against Charlie Morton today. Jonathan Aranda pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jacob Stallings has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jacob Stallings's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 17.9% to 21.4%. Jacob Stallings has been unlucky this year, posting a .184 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .268 — a .084 disparity.

Jake Mangum's BABIP talent is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitters such as Jake Mangum with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Charlie Morton who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Jake Mangum will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Jake Mangum has posted a .307 batting average this year, placing in the 97th percentile.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 19th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of the day at 86°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Gunnar Henderson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley today. Over the past two weeks, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.2-mph over the course of the season to 96.4-mph of late.

Matt Thaiss has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.