Tampa Bay @ Boston props

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. This matchup is forecasted to have the 4th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Extreme flyball batters like Jake Mangum generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Dobbins. Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Mangum in today's matchup.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. This matchup is forecasted to have the 4th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the same side that Hunter Dobbins throws from, Yandy Diaz meets a tough challenge in today's game. Typically, hitters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Hunter Dobbins. Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. This matchup is forecasted to have the 4th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox. Jonathan Aranda will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. Despite posting a .390 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jonathan Aranda has had some very good luck given the .051 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .339.

The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Taylor Walls has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Compared to last season, Taylor Walls has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.8% to 19.4% this season. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.240) provides evidence that Taylor Walls has had some very poor luck this year with his .211 actual batting average.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 ballpark in the game for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game. Bats such as Danny Jansen with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Dobbins who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. This season, Danny Jansen has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 93.9 mph compared to last year's 90.5 mph mark. Danny Jansen's launch angle this year (24.6°) is significantly higher than his 21.6° figure last year.

When estimating his batting average ability, Chandler Simpson is projected as the 10th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Chandler Simpson will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Dobbins in today's matchup. Chandler Simpson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, Chandler Simpson grades out in the 99th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .309.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage against Drew Rasmussen today. Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

Ha-seong Kim is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 ballpark in the game for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ha-seong Kim hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.257) implies that Ha-seong Kim has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .237 actual batting average. Ha-seong Kim has displayed good plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 97th percentile with a 1.36 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Alex Bregman is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 ballpark in the game for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today. Hitters such as Alex Bregman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Marcelo Mayer will hold the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup. Marcelo Mayer has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Marcelo Mayer will hold that advantage in today's game.

Roman Anthony's BABIP talent is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Roman Anthony is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Roman Anthony will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen today. Roman Anthony has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 ballpark in the game for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Caballero has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 85.5-mph average to last year's 83.5-mph average. Compared to last year, Jose Caballero has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 43.9% to 51.5% this season. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Jose Caballero sits with a .331 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 ballpark in the game for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Junior Caminero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 31.5% to 37.9%.

Carlos Narvaez is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 ballpark in the game for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Fenway Park has the shallowest LF fences in the league. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage today. Posting a .350 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Carlos Narvaez is positioned in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 92nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's game. Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 15th-best batter in baseball when estimating his BABIP skill. Fenway Park grades out as the #4 ballpark in the game for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Romy Gonzalez has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Romy Gonzalez will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The Barrel% of Romy Gonzalez has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.5% last year to 15.5% this year.

The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Abraham Toro will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Abraham Toro ranks in the 77th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (17.6% rate this year). Sporting a .274 batting average this year, Abraham Toro has performed in the 77th percentile.

Fenway Park grades out as the #4 ballpark in the game for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Trevor Story hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Trevor Story will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Checking in at the 75th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score this year, Trevor Story demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a core talent for achieving a high batting average. Trevor Story is quite quick, ranking in the 82nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.5 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an edge today.

Ceddanne Rafaela's batting average ability is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fenway Park grades out as the #4 ballpark in the game for righty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's game. Ceddanne Rafaela has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 7.6% rate last year to 13.3% this season.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.