Tampa Bay @ Boston picks
Fenway Park
TB vs BOS Picks
MLB Picks
Total RBIs

Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+185)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jonathan Aranda will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Dobbins in today's matchup.. Jonathan Aranda pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
Total RBIs

Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's game.. Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
Total Bases

Wilyer Abreu u1.5 Total Bases (-150)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
10% of the time that Wilyer Abreu has started against a northpaw this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. The league's 2nd-tallest fences can be found at Fenway Park.. Fenway Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.. This matchup is forecasted to have the 5th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. In the last week, Wilyer Abreu has not been doing well in optimizing the launch angle on his hardest hit balls to generate power, managing a mere a 5.5° angle.
Total Bases

Abraham Toro o0.5 Total Bases (-160)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In Major League Baseball, Fenway Park's right field fences are the 3rd-shallowest.. Abraham Toro will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.. Abraham Toro ranks in the 77th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (17.6% rate this year).. Sporting a .274 batting average this year, Abraham Toro has performed in the 77th percentile.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Danny Jansen o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Fenway Park ranks as the #3 park in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Bats such as Danny Jansen with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Dobbins who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. This season, Danny Jansen has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 93.9 mph compared to last year's 90.5 mph mark.. Danny Jansen's launch angle this year (24.6°) is significantly higher than his 21.6° figure last year.