Kansas City @ Seattle picks

Cal Raleigh leads the majors in homers but his breakout year means that we can get value out of fading him. Raleigh has a modest .272 BA and rarely hits doubles, so he usually needs to hit a dinger to eclipse his 1.5 total bases prop. He won't find it easy to hit a HR today against KC starter Seth Lugo who has a 2.74 ERA. Raleigh has gone below 1.5 total bases in 46 of 84 games this year and his home/away and platoon splits don't favor him today. Raleigh slugs .763 versus lefties but that number drops to .589 against righties like Lugo. His slugging percentage also drops 55 points at home. 

The Mariners' lineup has been one of the hottest in baseball. They rank fourth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and third in wRC+ since June. Seth Lugo has a solid ERA but has definitely been a little lucky to this point. The RHP ranks in the 22nd percentile in xERA and the 25th in xBA. The regression begins tonight in Seattle.

When assessing his home run talent, Salvador Perez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Salvador Perez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryan Woo.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 13th-weakest out of all the teams today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the league.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball batters like Bobby Witt Jr. usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryan Woo.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 14th-weakest out of all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 9th-best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average skill.. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for homers.. Julio Rodriguez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. Julio Rodriguez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.6-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 90.8-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Randy Arozarena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the past 7 days, Randy Arozarena's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.2% up to 20%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the league.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball batters like Bobby Witt Jr. usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryan Woo.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 14th-weakest out of all the teams today.

Because of Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Kyle Isbel will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today.. Kyle Isbel is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.. Kyle Isbel pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 13th-weakest out of all the teams today.. Kyle Isbel has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.5-mph to 92.5-mph over the past week.

When assessing his home run talent, Salvador Perez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Salvador Perez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryan Woo.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 13th-weakest out of all the teams today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the league.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball batters like Bobby Witt Jr. usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Bryan Woo.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 13th-weakest out of all the teams today.

Batting from the opposite that Seth Lugo throws from, Cole Young will have an edge in today's matchup.. Cole Young pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Cole Young will hold that advantage today.. Cole Young has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96-mph average in the last week to his seasonal average of 91.2-mph.. Cole Young has been unlucky this year, compiling a .256 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .304 — a .048 disparity.

T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for homers.. Jac Caglianone will hold the platoon advantage over Bryan Woo in today's game... and moreover, Woo has a large platoon split.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 14th-weakest out of all the teams today.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.317) provides evidence that Jac Caglianone has experienced some negative variance this year with his .194 actual wOBA.