Cleveland @ Chicago picks

Cade Horton is in his rookie season with the Cubs after getting called up to the Big Leagues in May. He’s compiled a 4.80 ERA and 3-2 record in nine appearances, with only 33 punchouts in 45 innings of work. Horton hasn’t shown a lot of swing-and-miss stuff so far. He’s cashed the Under in Ks back-to-back outings and in three of his last five appearances dating back to June 3. Horton rarely pitches deeper than the fifth inning in starts, which, of course, is going to play a part in his strikeout total.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 15th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 87°.. Luis Ortiz will have the handedness advantage over Seiya Suzuki in today's game... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Ortiz's large platoon split.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Ian Happ ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 87°.. Ian Happ will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 87°.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his home run ability, Lane Thomas ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Lane Thomas is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 87°.. Lane Thomas pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Jose Ramirez's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jose Ramirez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 87°.. Jose Ramirez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.6-mph mark.

Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 87°.. Luis Ortiz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carson Kelly today... and it's a particular mismatch considering Ortiz's large platoon split.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage in today's game.. Carson Kelly has posted a .358 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 88th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his home run skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 87°.. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 87°.. Batting from the opposite that Cade Horton throws from, Bo Naylor will have an advantage in today's game.. Bo Naylor's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (22.1°) is quite a bit higher than his 17.5° figure last season.. Bo Naylor has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 26.57 ft/sec to 27.18 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 4th-hottest temperature on the slate today at 87°.. Reese McGuire will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Reese McGuire has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.2-mph average to last season's 89.1-mph mark.. Reese McGuire's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 15% to 28.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Wrigley Field as the 7th-worst park in MLB for run-scoring.. Among all parks, the 7th-tallest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.. The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the strongest among every team today.. Dansby Swanson's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 94.2-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 86-mph in the past 7 days.. By putting up a 3.66 K/BB rate this year, Dansby Swanson has demonstrated bad plate discipline, checking in at the 23rd percentile.