Milwaukee @ New York picks
Citi Field
MIL vs NYM Picks
MLB PicksBoth lineups showed in one half of yesterday’s doubleheader that they’re capable of producing big innings, and tonight’s matchup features the shakiest pitching duel of the series. I expect both offenses to have their moments in this one, which is why I’m taking the Over.
Total RBIs

Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB.. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Jackson Chourio o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Jackson Chourio is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Jackson Chourio will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against David Peterson in today's game.. Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's shallowest CF fences today.
Total RBIs

Christian Yelich o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich as the 15th-best batter in MLB as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Christian Yelich is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Christian Yelich has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the worst out of every team today.
Total RBIs

Rhys Hoskins o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Rhys Hoskins is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Rhys Hoskins will hold the platoon advantage against David Peterson in today's game.. Rhys Hoskins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Rhys Hoskins generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
Total RBIs

Pete Alonso o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as the league's 10th-best home run hitter.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures of all games today at 82°.. Batting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Pete Alonso will have an advantage in today's game.
Total RBIs

William Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. William Contreras is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. William Contreras will hold the platoon advantage over David Peterson in today's matchup.. William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Francisco Lindor o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Francisco Lindor will get to bat from his good side against Jose Quintana today.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases

Juan Soto o0.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB.. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures of all games today at 82°.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Juan Soto o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-120)
Projection 2.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in MLB.. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Juan Soto will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases

Pete Alonso o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as the league's 10th-best home run hitter.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The shallowest CF fences among all parks are found in Citi Field.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 86°.. Batting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Pete Alonso will have an advantage in today's game.