San Francisco @ Arizona picks
Chase Field
SF vs AZ Picks
MLB Picks
Gallen, six years his elder, has essentially forgotten how to pitch after a slight decline in performance over the last two years. His strikeout rate has dropped to 20.8% this season with his walk rate now approaching 10%, and that’s put the onus on him to rack up outs on contact when he needs to – something he’s done to varying degrees of success since his stellar 2022 season. The righty has now allowed 19 home runs – good for second-worst in the National League – and while he’s shown some improved control this month, he’s grown worse at keeping the ball in the yard. His Expected Slugging is a dastardly .490 thanks to a drop in ground balls and another rough year in terms of limiting hard contact. Against a Giants team that has hit for power this year – and hits fly-ballers far better than ground-ballers, I believe this slumbering offense will wake up in a big way.

The Diamondbacks plate a run in the first inning at the highest rate in the majors (35.7%) and they rank third in OPS (.776). They should be able to get to Giants righty Hayden Birdsong who has been given the start today. Birdsong is far more effective coming out of the bullpen and he has an ugly 5.40 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP in seven starts. That said, Arizona has an even worse pitcher on the mound in Zac Gallen who has a 6.97 ERA over his last 10 starts. He faces a Giants lineup that has gotten more dangerous at the top after trading for Rafael Devers.









