San Diego @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Martin Maldonado pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Since the start of last season, Martin Maldonado's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to measure power) is in the 76th percentile at 93.9 mph. Martin Maldonado and his 15.9° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 78th percentile, among the highest in the league since the start of last season.

Nick Martinez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. today. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. today. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 48.8% to 38%.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Martinez in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Gavin Sheets has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.8-mph average to last year's 90.8-mph mark.

Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.

The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Will Benson will have an advantage today. Will Benson will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Will Benson has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 11.6% rate last season to 16.7% this year. This season, Will Benson has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.6 mph compared to last year's 93.4 mph mark.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Xander Bogaerts's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 42% to 47.3%. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.325) may lead us to conclude that Xander Bogaerts has suffered from bad luck this year with his .294 actual wOBA. Sporting a 1.58 K/BB rate this year, Xander Bogaerts has shown favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 84th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Matt McLain has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Matt McLain will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Gavin Lux is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Gavin Lux will have an advantage in today's matchup. Gavin Lux will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have the upper hand today. Jake Cronenworth has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. Jake Cronenworth has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 7.1% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the last week.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Christian Encarnacion-Strand pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .257 figure is a fair amount lower than his .303 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best batter in the majors when estimating his BABIP skill. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Dylan Cease. Extreme groundball bats like Elly De La Cruz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Dylan Cease.

Nick Martinez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Manny Machado today. Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, going from 14.9% on the season to 7.1% in the last 14 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Manny Machado's true offensive talent to be a .348, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .018 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .366 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jose Iglesias has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Iglesias generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Martinez. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jose Iglesias has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 4° compared to his seasonal mark of 0.5°.

TJ Friedl is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). TJ Friedl will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dylan Cease in today's matchup. TJ Friedl pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and TJ Friedl will hold that advantage in today's game.

The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Spencer Steer will hold that advantage today.

Austin Hays is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Austin Hays pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Austin Hays will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Austin Hays has made significant strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.8% rate last year to 13.5% this season.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today's matchup. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 87.9-mph average last season has lowered to 85.3-mph. In the past two weeks, Luis Arraez has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Tyler Stephenson has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Tyler Stephenson will hold that advantage today. Tyler Stephenson has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.1-mph average to last year's 93.8-mph EV.

The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jose Trevino pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Trevino will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Jose Trevino's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (10.6°) is a considerable increase over his 6.8° figure last year. Checking in at the 89th percentile, Jose Trevino has posted a .288 batting average this year.

The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Nick Martinez throws from, Trenton Brooks will have the upper hand in today's game.

Santiago Espinal has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.