San Diego @ Cincinnati picks

The Friars are set to begin a series with the Cincinnati Reds, and Machado is batting .321 on the road with eight homers. San Diego faces right-hander Nick Martinez, and Machado is 4-for-11 with three RBI against his former teammate. Machado has two bombs in his last six appearances, and five of his home runs are off right-handed pitchers. I’m eyeing him to keep up the success against Martinez tonight. 

The Padres have been underachieving at the plate but the top of their lineup is as good as anybody. They plate a run in the first inning in 34.2% of their road games — the sixth-highest number in the majors. They should be able to get to Reds starter Nick Martinez who has a 4.82 ERA with an OBA of .291 in eight starts at home. Cincy's offense has a run first inning rate of 35% at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and San Diego's Dylan Cease has an ugly 6.26 ERA on the road.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best batter in the majors when estimating his BABIP skill.. Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Dylan Cease.. Extreme groundball bats like Elly De La Cruz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Dylan Cease.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Manny Machado is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Manny Machado's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (11.2°) is considerably higher than his 6.4° mark last season.. In notching a .293 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Manny Machado has performed in the 95th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Matt McLain has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Matt McLain will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Over the past 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 41.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.1%.. Despite posting a .348 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Fernando Tatis Jr. has had some very poor luck given the .031 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .379.

When it comes to his home run ability, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Christian Encarnacion-Strand pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.2% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .257 figure is a fair amount lower than his .303 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Tyler Stephenson has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Tyler Stephenson will hold that advantage today.. Tyler Stephenson has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.1-mph average to last year's 93.8-mph EV.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 2nd-highest level on the slate at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage over Nick Martinez in today's matchup.. Gavin Sheets pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.. Gavin Sheets has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.8-mph average to last year's 90.8-mph mark.

The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Martin Maldonado pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Since the start of last season, Martin Maldonado's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to measure power) is in the 76th percentile at 93.9 mph.. Martin Maldonado and his 15.9° launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls rank in 78th percentile, among the highest in the league since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Manny Machado is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Manny Machado's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (11.2°) is considerably higher than his 6.4° mark last season.. In notching a .293 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Manny Machado has performed in the 95th percentile.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 90°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Over the past 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 41.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.1%.. Despite posting a .348 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Fernando Tatis Jr. has had some very poor luck given the .031 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .379.