Philadelphia @ Houston props

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Alec Bohm has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Alec Bohm will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. Alec Bohm's launch angle this year (6.8°) is considerably worse than his 10° figure last year.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nick Castellanos in today's matchup. Nick Castellanos has shown poor plate discipline this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile with a 3.66 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Otto Kemp will have an edge today. Over the past week, Otto Kemp's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.9% up to 22.2%. Otto Kemp has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 94.2-mph over the past week. In the last week, Otto Kemp's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Bryson Stott has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Bryson Stott's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5% up to 25%. Over the last 7 days, Bryson Stott's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.1-mph over the course of the season to 103.9-mph recently. Bryson Stott's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 16.2% to 22%.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to lower offensive output. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching. Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Trea Turner in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Trea Turner's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%. Compared to his seasonal figure of 11.6°, Trea Turner has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2°) in the past 14 days.

Minute Maid Park has the shallowest fences among all major league parks — generally good for home runs. Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Taylor Trammell will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Taylor Trammell will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Yainer Diaz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 93.2-mph. Despite posting a .281 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yainer Diaz has had bad variance on his side given the .044 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .325.

Victor Caratini is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Extreme flyball batters like Victor Caratini are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Zack Wheeler. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Victor Caratini will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Victor Caratini's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.6% up to 26.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the 5th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP ability. Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. In the past week, Brandon Marsh's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 98.2-mph of late. Brandon Marsh's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, increasing from 18.2% on the season to 46.2% in the past week. Brandon Marsh has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .316 figure is quite a bit lower than his .334 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Cooper Hummel will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. The standard deviation of Cooper Hummel's launch angle has been very consistent recently (45.8° in the last week's worth of games), which is an indicator of reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.

The shallowest LF fences in the league are found in Minute Maid Park. Hitting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Buddy Kennedy will have an edge in today's game. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Buddy Kennedy is in the 96th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .364. Using Statcast metrics, Buddy Kennedy is in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .293. Buddy Kennedy's 13.3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) is in the 90th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Mauricio Dubon will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 8.4°, Mauricio Dubon has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 32.8° mark over the past 7 days. Mauricio Dubon has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .250 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .287 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. The shallowest LF fences in the league are found in Minute Maid Park. Extreme groundball batters like Jeremy Pena usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Wheeler. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 83rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Jake Meyers will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 44.4% to 52.3%. Grading out in the 98th percentile, Jake Meyers has posted a .370 BABIP this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the league. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. Kyle Schwarber has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 94.2-mph average. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle this year (19.6°) is significantly higher than his 14.9° figure last season. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.6°, Kyle Schwarber has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 24.6° angle over the past 14 days.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (47% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Isaac Paredes is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst on the slate). Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, J.T. Realmuto will have an advantage in today's game. Despite posting a .297 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes J.T. Realmuto has had bad variance on his side given the .034 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Jose Altuve will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Johan Rojas will have the handedness advantage against Colton Gordon in today's game. Extreme groundball bats like Johan Rojas tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Colton Gordon. Johan Rojas's launch angle this year (9.5°) is considerably higher than his 4.5° figure last season.

Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today's game. Christian Walker's launch angle in recent games (24.4° over the past two weeks) is considerably better than his 17.8° seasonal angle. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Christian Walker's true offensive ability to be a .329, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .047 disparity between that mark and his actual .282 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. The shallowest LF fences in the league are found in Minute Maid Park. Edmundo Sosa will hold the platoon advantage over Colton Gordon in today's game. Compared to his seasonal average of 10.1°, Edmundo Sosa has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 24° mark over the last 7 days. Edmundo Sosa has posted a .326 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 89th percentile.

Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Luis Guillorme will have an advantage today. Luis Guillorme has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Batters such as Luis Guillorme with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Zack Wheeler who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst among all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Luis Guillorme will hold that advantage today.